Projected AP Top 25 after week 11

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1 place on average, with 9 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1LSU9-0–AP 1
   Won 46-41 at No. 2 Alabama as a 6-point underdog · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State9-0▲1AP 2
   Beat Maryland 73-14 at home as a 42.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
3. 3Clemson10-0▲1AP 3
   Won 55-10 at NC State as a 35-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Georgia8-1▲2AP 5
   Beat Missouri 27-0 at home as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
5. 5Alabama8-1▼3AP 4
   Lost 46-41 at home to No. 1 LSU as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 2
6. 6Oregon8-1▲1AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 7
7. 7Utah8-1▲1AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 8
8. 8Oklahoma8-1▲1AP 10
   Beat Iowa State 42-41 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Florida8-2▲1AP 11
   Beat Vanderbilt 56-0 at home as a 27-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10Minnesota9-0▲3AP 7
    Beat No. 5 Penn State 31-26 at home as a 6.5-point underdog · Was No. 13
11. 11Baylor9-0–AP 12
    Won 29-23 at TCU as a 2-point favorite · Was No. 11
12. 12Penn State8-1▼7AP 9
    Lost 31-26 at No. 13 Minnesota as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
13. 13Auburn7-2▼1AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 12
14. 14Notre Dame7-2▲1AP 16
    Won 38-7 at Duke as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 15
15. 15Michigan7-2▼1AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 14
16. 16Wisconsin7-2–AP 15
    Beat No. 18 Iowa 24-22 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
17. 17Cincinnati8-1–AP 17
    Beat UConn 48-3 at home as a 34-point favorite · Was No. 17
18. 18Memphis8-1▲1AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 19
19. 19Boise State8-1▲2AP 19
    Beat Wyoming 20-17 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20SMU9-1▲3AP 20
    Beat East Carolina 59-51 at home as a 22-point favorite · Was No. 23
21. 21Iowa6-3▼3AP 23
    Lost 24-22 at No. 16 Wisconsin as a 7.5-point underdog · Was No. 18
22. 22Navy7-1▲3AP 21
    Off this week · Was No. 25
23. 23App State8-1NewAP NR
    Won 20-15 at South Carolina as a 6.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Louisiana7-2NewAP NR
    Won 48-7 at Coastal Carolina as a 14-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Louisiana Tech8-1NewAP NR
    Beat North Texas 52-17 at home as a 5.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Kansas State (was No. 20): Lost 27-24 at Texas as a 7-point underdog.
• Wake Forest (was No. 22): Lost 36-17 at Virginia Tech as a 2.5-point favorite.
• San Diego State (was No. 24): Lost 17-13 at home to Nevada as a 17-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.