Projected AP Top 25 after week 8

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.6 places on average, with 10 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama7-0–AP 1
   Beat Tennessee 35-13 at home as a 35-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2LSU7-0–AP 2
   Won 36-13 at Mississippi State as a 19-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Clemson7-0–AP 4
   Won 45-10 at Louisville as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Ohio State7-0–AP 3
   Won 52-3 at Northwestern as a 27-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Oklahoma7-0–AP 5
   Beat West Virginia 52-14 at home as a 32-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Penn State7-0▲1AP 6
   Beat No. 16 Michigan 28-21 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Notre Dame5-1▲1AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 8
8. 8Florida7-1▲1AP 7
   Won 38-27 at South Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Georgia6-1▲1AP 10
   Beat Kentucky 21-0 at home as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10Auburn6-1▲1AP 9
    Won 51-10 at Arkansas as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Utah6-1▲2AP 12
    Beat No. 17 Arizona State 21-3 at home as a 15-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12Oregon6-1–AP 11
    Won 35-31 at No. 25 Washington as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 12
13. 13Texas5-2▲2AP 15
    Beat Kansas 50-48 at home as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14Wisconsin6-1▼8AP 13
    Lost 24-23 at Illinois as a 30-point favorite · Was No. 6
15. 15Baylor7-0▲3AP 14
    Won 45-27 at Oklahoma State as a 6-point underdog · Was No. 18
16. 16SMU7-0▲3AP 16
    Beat Temple 45-21 at home as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
17. 17Minnesota7-0▲3AP 17
    Won 42-7 at Rutgers as a 29-point favorite · Was No. 20
18. 18Cincinnati6-1▲3AP 18
    Beat Tulsa 24-13 at home as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 21
19. 19Michigan5-2▼3AP 19
    Lost 28-21 at No. 7 Penn State as a 7.5-point underdog · Was No. 16
20. 20App State6-0▲4AP 21
    Beat UL Monroe 52-7 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
21. 21Iowa5-2▲2AP 20
    Beat Purdue 26-20 at home as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 23
22. 22Boise State6-1▼8AP 22
    Lost 28-25 at BYU as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 14
23. 23Memphis6-1NewAP NR
    Beat Tulane 47-17 at home as a 2-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Arizona State5-2▼7AP 24
    Lost 21-3 at No. 13 Utah as a 15-point underdog · Was No. 17
25. 25Navy5-1NewAP NR
    Beat South Florida 35-3 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Missouri (was No. 22): Lost 21-14 at Vanderbilt as a 21-point favorite.
• Washington (was No. 25): Lost 35-31 at home to No. 12 Oregon as a 3-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.