Projected AP Top 25 after week 13

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.3 places on average, with 19 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1LSU11-0–AP 1
   Beat Arkansas 56-20 at home as a 41.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State11-0–AP 2
   Beat No. 9 Penn State 28-17 at home as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Clemson11-0–AP 3
   Off this week · Was No. 3
4. 4Georgia10-1–AP 4
   Beat No. 24 Texas A&M 19-13 at home as a 12-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Alabama10-1–AP 5
   Beat Western Carolina 66-3 at home as a 58.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Utah10-1▲1AP 6
   Won 35-7 at Arizona as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Oklahoma10-1▲1AP 7
   Beat TCU 28-24 at home as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Florida9-2▲2AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 10
9. 9Minnesota10-1▲2AP 9
   Won 38-22 at Northwestern as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10Michigan9-2▲2AP 10
    Won 39-14 at Indiana as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11Baylor10-1▲2AP 11
    Beat Texas 24-10 at home as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12Wisconsin9-2▲2AP 13
    Beat Purdue 45-24 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Penn State9-2▼4AP 12
    Lost 28-17 at No. 2 Ohio State as a 20-point underdog · Was No. 9
14. 14Notre Dame9-2▲1AP 15
    Beat Boston College 40-7 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
15. 15Auburn8-3▲1AP 16
    Beat Samford 52-0 at home as a 45.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
16. 16Oregon9-2▼10AP 14
    Lost 31-28 at Arizona State as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
17. 17Memphis10-1▲1AP 17
    Won 49-10 at South Florida as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
18. 18Cincinnati10-1▼1AP 18
    Beat Temple 15-13 at home as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 17
19. 19Iowa8-3–AP 19
    Beat Illinois 19-10 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
20. 20Boise State10-1–AP 20
    Won 56-21 at Utah State as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 20
21. 21Oklahoma State8-3▲1AP 21
    Won 20-13 at West Virginia as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
22. 22App State10-1▲1AP 22
    Beat Texas State 35-13 at home as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 23
23. 23Virginia Tech8-3▲2AP 23
    Beat Pittsburgh 28-0 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
24. 24Navy8-2NewAP 24
    Beat No. 21 SMU 35-28 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Louisiana9-2NewAP NR
    Beat Troy 53-3 at home as a 12.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• SMU (was No. 21): Lost 35-28 at Navy as a 3.5-point underdog.
• Texas A&M (was No. 24): Lost 19-13 at No. 4 Georgia as a 12-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.