Projected AP Top 25 after week 1

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.3 places on average, with 8 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Clemson1-0–AP 1
   Beat Georgia Tech 52-14 at home as a 36.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama1-0–AP 2
   Beat Duke 42-3 at a neutral site as a 34.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Georgia1-0–AP 3
   Won 30-6 at Vanderbilt as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Oklahoma1-0–AP 4
   Beat Houston 49-31 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Ohio State1-0–AP 5
   Beat Florida Atlantic 45-21 at home as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6LSU1-0–AP 6
   Beat Georgia Southern 55-3 at home as a 27-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Michigan1-0–AP 7
   Beat Middle Tennessee 40-21 at home as a 36-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Florida1-0–AP 11
   Beat Miami 24-20 at a neutral site as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Notre Dame1-0–AP 8
   Won 35-17 at Louisville as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Texas1-0–AP 9
    Beat Louisiana Tech 45-14 at home as a 19-point favorite · Was No. 10
11. 11Texas A&M1-0▲1AP 12
    Beat Texas State 41-7 at home as a 33-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Washington1-0▲1AP 14
    Beat Eastern Washington 47-14 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13Auburn1-0▲3AP 10
    Beat No. 11 Oregon 27-21 at a neutral site as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
14. 14Utah1-0–AP 13
    Won 30-12 at BYU as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
15. 15Penn State1-0–AP 15
    Beat Idaho 79-7 at home · Was No. 15
16. 16UCF1-0▲1AP 18
    Beat Florida A&M 62-0 at home as a 44-point favorite · Was No. 17
17. 17Michigan State1-0▲1AP 19
    Beat Tulsa 28-7 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
18. 18Wisconsin1-0▲1AP 17
    Won 49-0 at South Florida as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
19. 19Iowa1-0▲1AP 20
    Beat Miami (OH) 38-14 at home as a 25-point favorite · Was No. 20
20. 20Oregon0-1▼9AP 16
    Lost to No. 16 Auburn 27-21 at a neutral site as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 11
21. 21Iowa State1-0–AP 25
    Beat Northern Iowa 29-26 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
22. 22Syracuse1-0–AP 21
    Won 24-0 at Liberty as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
23. 23App State1-0NewAP NR
    Beat East Tennessee State 42-7 at home as a 33-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Washington State1-0▼1AP 22
    Beat New Mexico State 58-7 at home as a 33-point favorite · Was No. 23
25. 25Navy1-0NewAP NR
    Beat Holy Cross 45-7 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Nebraska (was No. 24): Beat South Alabama 35-21 at home as a 35.5-point favorite.
• Stanford (was No. 25): Beat Northwestern 17-7 at home as a 6.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.