Projected AP Top 25 after week 10

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.6 places on average, with 14 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1LSU8-0–AP 1
   Off this week · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama8-0–AP 2
   Off this week · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State8-0–AP 3
   Off this week · Was No. 3
4. 4Clemson9-0–AP 4
   Beat Wofford 59-14 at home as a 48.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Penn State8-0–AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 5
6. 6Georgia7-1▲2AP 6
   Beat No. 6 Florida 24-17 at a neutral site as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
7. 7Oregon8-1–AP 7
   Won 56-24 at USC as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Utah8-1▲1AP 8
   Won 33-28 at Washington as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Oklahoma7-1▲1AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 10
10. 10Auburn7-2▲1AP 12
    Beat Ole Miss 20-14 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Baylor8-0▲1AP 11
    Beat West Virginia 17-14 at home as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Florida7-2▼6AP 10
    Lost to No. 8 Georgia 24-17 at a neutral site as a 6.5-point underdog · Was No. 6
13. 13Michigan7-2▲1AP 14
    Won 38-7 at Maryland as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
14. 14Minnesota8-0▼1AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 13
15. 15Notre Dame6-2▲1AP 15
    Beat Virginia Tech 21-20 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
16. 16Cincinnati7-1▲1AP 17
    Won 46-43 at East Carolina as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
17. 17Wisconsin6-2▲1AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 18
18. 18Iowa6-2▲1AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 19
19. 19Boise State7-1▲2AP 21
    Won 52-42 at San José State as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20Kansas State6-2▲2AP 20
    Won 38-10 at Kansas as a 5-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21Memphis8-1▲3AP 19
    Beat No. 15 SMU 54-48 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
22. 22Wake Forest7-1▲1AP 22
    Beat NC State 44-10 at home as a 8-point favorite · Was No. 23
23. 23Navy7-1NewAP 25
    Won 56-10 at UConn as a 26.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24UCF7-2NewAP NR
    Beat Houston 44-29 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Louisiana6-2NewAP NR
    Beat Texas State 31-3 at home as a 23-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• SMU (was No. 15): Lost 54-48 at No. 24 Memphis as a 6.5-point underdog.
• App State (was No. 20): Lost 24-21 at home to Georgia Southern as a 13.5-point favorite.
• San Diego State (was No. 25): Off this week.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.