Projected AP Top 25 after week 5

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 21 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.9 places on average, with 7 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Clemson5-0–AP 2
   Won 21-20 at North Carolina as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama5-0–AP 1
   Beat Ole Miss 59-31 at home as a 38-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Georgia4-0–AP 3
   Off this week · Was No. 3
4. 4LSU4-0–AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 4
5. 5Ohio State5-0–AP 4
   Won 48-7 at Nebraska as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Oklahoma4-0–AP 6
   Beat Texas Tech 55-16 at home as a 27-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Auburn5-0–AP 7
   Beat Mississippi State 56-23 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Wisconsin4-0–AP 8
   Beat Northwestern 24-15 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Florida5-0–AP 10
   Beat Towson 38-0 at home as a 37-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Notre Dame3-1–AP 9
    Beat No. 18 Virginia 35-20 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
11. 11Penn State4-0▲1AP 12
    Won 59-0 at Maryland as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Texas3-1▼1AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 11
13. 13Iowa4-0▲1AP 14
    Beat Middle Tennessee 48-3 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
14. 14Oregon3-1▼1AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 13
15. 15Washington4-1▲2AP 15
    Beat No. 21 USC 28-14 at home as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16Boise State4-0–AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 16
17. 17Utah4-1▲2AP 17
    Beat Washington State 38-13 at home as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18Michigan3-1▲2AP 19
    Beat Rutgers 52-0 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19UCF4-1▲3AP 18
    Beat UConn 56-21 at home as a 42-point favorite · Was No. 22
20. 20Texas A&M3-2▲3AP 25
    Beat Arkansas 31-27 at a neutral site as a 23-point favorite · Was No. 23
21. 21Memphis4-0NewAP NR
    Beat Navy 35-23 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was unranked
22. 22SMU5-0NewAP 24
    Won 48-21 at South Florida as a 7.5-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23App State4-0NewAP NR
    Beat Coastal Carolina 56-37 at home as a 16-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Michigan State4-1▲1AP NR
    Beat Indiana 40-31 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 25
25. 25Baylor4-0NewAP NR
    Beat Iowa State 23-21 at home as a 2.5-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• California (was No. 15): Lost 24-17 at home to Arizona State as a 4-point favorite.
• Virginia (was No. 18): Lost 35-20 at No. 10 Notre Dame as a 10.5-point underdog.
• USC (was No. 21): Lost 28-14 at No. 17 Washington as a 11-point underdog.
• Kansas State (was No. 24): Lost 26-13 at Oklahoma State as a 4-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.