Projected AP Top 25 after week 15

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.8 places on average, with 13 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1LSU13-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 4 Georgia 37-10 at a neutral site · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State13-0–AP 2
   Beat No. 10 Wisconsin 34-21 at a neutral site · Was No. 2
3. 3Clemson13-0–AP 3
   Beat No. 22 Virginia 62-17 at a neutral site · Was No. 3
4. 4Oklahoma12-1▲2AP 4
   Beat No. 8 Baylor 30-23 at a neutral site · Was No. 6
5. 5Florida10-2▲2AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 7
6. 6Oregon11-2▲7AP 7
   Beat No. 5 Utah 37-15 at a neutral site · Was No. 13
7. 7Alabama10-2▲2AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 9
8. 8Georgia11-2▼4AP 5
   Lost to No. 1 LSU 37-10 at a neutral site · Was No. 4
9. 9Auburn9-3▲2AP 10
   Off this week · Was No. 11
10. 10Penn State10-2▲2AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 12
11. 11Baylor11-2▼3AP 8
    Lost to No. 6 Oklahoma 30-23 at a neutral site · Was No. 8
12. 12Utah11-2▼7AP 12
    Lost to No. 13 Oregon 37-15 at a neutral site · Was No. 5
13. 13Notre Dame10-2▲1AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 14
14. 14Wisconsin10-3▼4AP 11
    Lost to No. 2 Ohio State 34-21 at a neutral site · Was No. 10
15. 15Memphis12-1▲1AP 15
    Beat No. 21 Cincinnati 29-24 at a neutral site · Was No. 16
16. 16Minnesota10-2▼1AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 15
17. 17Michigan9-3–AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 17
18. 18Boise State12-1▲1AP 18
    Beat Hawai'i 31-10 at a neutral site · Was No. 19
19. 19Iowa9-3▼1AP 19
    Off this week · Was No. 18
20. 20App State12-1–AP 20
    Beat Louisiana 45-38 at a neutral site · Was No. 20
21. 21Navy10-2▲2AP 21
    Beat Army 31-7 at a neutral site as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
22. 22USC8-4▲2AP 22
    Off this week · Was No. 24
23. 23Air Force10-2▲2AP 24
    Off this week · Was No. 25
24. 24SMU10-2NewAP NR
    Off this week · Was unranked
25. 25Florida Atlantic10-3NewAP NR
    Beat UAB 49-6 at a neutral site · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Cincinnati (was No. 21): Lost to No. 16 Memphis 29-24 at a neutral site.
• Virginia (was No. 22): Lost to No. 3 Clemson 62-17 at a neutral site.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.