Projected AP Top 25 after week 3

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.6 places on average, with 15 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Clemson3-0–AP 1
   Won 41-6 at Syracuse as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama3-0–AP 2
   Won 47-23 at South Carolina as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Georgia3-0–AP 3
   Beat Arkansas State 55-0 at home as a 33-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4LSU3-0–AP 4
   Beat Northwestern State 65-14 at home as a 51.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Oklahoma3-0–AP 5
   Won 48-14 at UCLA as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Ohio State3-0–AP 6
   Won 51-10 at Indiana as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Notre Dame2-0–AP 7
   Beat New Mexico 66-14 at home as a 35-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Auburn3-0–AP 8
   Beat Kent State 55-16 at home as a 35.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Florida3-0–AP 9
   Won 29-21 at Kentucky as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Utah3-0▲1AP 10
    Beat Idaho State 31-0 at home as a 37.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Michigan2-0▼1AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 10
12. 12Texas2-1–AP 12
    Beat Rice 48-13 at a neutral site as a 32.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
13. 13Penn State3-0–AP 14
    Beat Pittsburgh 17-10 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 13
14. 14Oregon2-1▲1AP 16
    Beat Montana 35-3 at home as a 38.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
15. 15Wisconsin2-0▼1AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 14
16. 16Texas A&M2-1–AP 17
    Beat Lamar 62-3 at home as a 45-point favorite · Was No. 16
17. 17UCF3-0–AP 15
    Beat Stanford 45-27 at home as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 17
18. 18Iowa3-0▲1AP 18
    Won 18-17 at Iowa State as a 1.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
19. 19Washington State3-0▲1AP 19
    Beat Houston 31-24 at a neutral site as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 20
20. 20Boise State3-0▲2AP 20
    Beat Portland State 45-10 at home as a 32.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21Washington2-1▲2AP 22
    Beat Hawai'i 52-20 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
22. 22Memphis3-0NewAP NR
    Won 42-6 at South Alabama as a 20.5-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Navy2-0NewAP NR
    Beat East Carolina 42-10 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24SMU3-0NewAP NR
    Beat Texas State 47-17 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Virginia3-0–AP 21
    Beat Florida State 31-24 at home as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 25

Dropping out

• Michigan State (was No. 18): Lost 10-7 at home to Arizona State as a 15.5-point favorite.
• Maryland (was No. 21): Lost 20-17 at Temple as a 5-point favorite.
• USC (was No. 24): Lost 30-27 at BYU as a 4.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.