Projected AP Top 25 after week 2

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.7 places on average, with 10 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Clemson2-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 12 Texas A&M 24-10 at home as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama2-0–AP 2
   Beat New Mexico State 62-10 at home as a 55.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Georgia2-0–AP 3
   Beat Murray State 63-17 at home as a 49.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Oklahoma2-0–AP 5
   Beat South Dakota 70-14 at home as a 46.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5LSU2-0▲1AP 4
   Won 45-38 at No. 9 Texas as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Ohio State2-0▼1AP 6
   Beat Cincinnati 42-0 at home as a 15-point favorite · Was No. 5
7. 7Michigan2-0–AP 10
   Beat Army 24-21 at home as a 22-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Notre Dame1-0–AP 7
   Off this week · Was No. 8
9. 9Auburn2-0▲1AP 8
   Beat Tulane 24-6 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10Florida2-0▲1AP 9
    Beat UT Martin 45-0 at home as a 44.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Utah2-0▲2AP 11
    Beat Northern Illinois 35-17 at home as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12Penn State2-0▲3AP 13
    Beat Buffalo 45-13 at home as a 31-point favorite · Was No. 15
13. 13Texas1-1▼4AP 12
    Lost 45-38 at home to No. 6 LSU as a 6.5-point underdog · Was No. 9
14. 14Oregon1-1▲2AP 15
    Beat Nevada 77-6 at home as a 25-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Wisconsin2-0▲2AP 14
    Beat Central Michigan 61-0 at home as a 35-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16UCF2-0▲2AP 17
    Won 48-14 at Florida Atlantic as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Texas A&M1-1▼5AP 16
    Lost 24-10 at No. 1 Clemson as a 16-point underdog · Was No. 12
18. 18Michigan State2-0▲1AP 18
    Beat Western Michigan 51-17 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
19. 19Iowa2-0▲1AP 19
    Beat Rutgers 30-0 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
20. 20Washington State2-0▲2AP 20
    Beat Northern Colorado 59-17 at home as a 42-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21Boise State2-0▲3AP 22
    Beat Marshall 14-7 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
22. 22Memphis2-0NewAP NR
    Beat Southern 55-24 at home as a 41-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Washington1-1▼9AP 23
    Lost 20-19 at home to California as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
24. 24USC2-0NewAP 24
    Beat No. 23 Stanford 45-20 at home as a 3-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Baylor2-0NewAP NR
    Beat UTSA 63-14 at home as a 25-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Syracuse (was No. 21): Lost 63-20 at Maryland as a 1-point underdog.
• Stanford (was No. 23): Lost 45-20 at USC as a 3-point underdog.
• Iowa State (was No. 25): Off this week.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.