Projected AP Top 25 after week 6

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.8 places on average, with 7 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama5-0–AP 1
   Off this week · Was No. 1
2. 2Clemson5-0–AP 2
   Off this week · Was No. 2
3. 3Georgia5-0–AP 4
   Won 43-14 at Tennessee as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Ohio State6-0–AP 3
   Beat Michigan State 34-10 at home as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5LSU5-0–AP 5
   Beat Utah State 42-6 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Oklahoma5-0–AP 6
   Won 45-20 at Kansas as a 32.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Wisconsin5-0▲1AP 8
   Beat Kent State 48-0 at home as a 35-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Florida6-0▲2AP 7
   Beat No. 7 Auburn 24-13 at home as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 10
9. 9Notre Dame4-1–AP 9
   Beat Bowling Green 52-0 at home as a 45.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Texas4-1▲1AP 11
    Won 42-31 at West Virginia as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Penn State5-0▲1AP 10
    Beat Purdue 35-7 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Oregon4-1▲1AP 13
    Beat California 17-7 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13Auburn5-1▼6AP 12
    Lost 24-13 at No. 10 Florida as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
14. 14Boise State5-0▲2AP 14
    Won 38-13 at UNLV as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Michigan4-1▲4AP 16
    Beat No. 14 Iowa 10-3 at home as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 19
16. 16Utah4-1▲1AP 15
    Off this week · Was No. 17
17. 17Arizona State4-1▲3AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 20
18. 18Wake Forest5-0▲4AP 19
    Off this week · Was No. 22
19. 19Iowa4-1▼5AP 17
    Lost 10-3 at No. 19 Michigan as a 4-point underdog · Was No. 14
20. 20Memphis5-0NewAP 23
    Won 52-33 at UL Monroe as a 15.5-point favorite · Was unranked
21. 21Virginia4-1▲2AP 20
    Off this week · Was No. 23
22. 22SMU6-0▲2AP 21
    Beat Tulsa 43-37 at home as a 12-point favorite · Was No. 24
23. 23Baylor5-0NewAP 22
    Won 31-12 at Kansas State as a 1-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Minnesota5-0NewAP NR
    Beat Illinois 40-17 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Cincinnati4-1NewAP 25
    Beat No. 18 UCF 27-24 at home as a 3.5-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Washington (was No. 15): Lost 23-13 at Stanford as a 12.5-point favorite.
• UCF (was No. 18): Lost 27-24 at Cincinnati as a 3.5-point favorite.
• Oklahoma State (was No. 21): Lost 45-35 at Texas Tech as a 9.5-point favorite.
• Texas A&M (was No. 25): Off this week.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.