Projected AP Top 25 after week 4

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.9 places on average, with 11 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Clemson4-0–AP 1
   Beat Charlotte 52-10 at home as a 41.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama4-0–AP 2
   Beat Southern Miss 49-7 at home as a 38-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Georgia4-0–AP 3
   Beat No. 7 Notre Dame 23-17 at home as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4LSU4-0–AP 4
   Won 66-38 at Vanderbilt as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Oklahoma3-0–AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 5
6. 6Ohio State4-0–AP 5
   Beat Miami (OH) 76-5 at home as a 38.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Auburn4-0▲1AP 7
   Won 28-20 at No. 17 Texas A&M as a 4-point underdog · Was No. 8
8. 8Florida4-0▲1AP 9
   Beat Tennessee 34-3 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Wisconsin3-0▲4AP 8
   Beat No. 11 Michigan 35-14 at home as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 13
10. 10Notre Dame2-1▼3AP 10
    Lost 23-17 at No. 3 Georgia as a 16-point underdog · Was No. 7
11. 11Texas3-1▲1AP 11
    Beat Oklahoma State 36-30 at home as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Penn State3-0▲2AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 14
13. 13Oregon3-1▲3AP 13
    Won 21-6 at Stanford as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
14. 14Iowa3-0▲4AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 18
15. 15Boise State4-0▲5AP 16
    Beat Air Force 30-19 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
16. 16Michigan2-1▼5AP 20
    Lost 35-14 at No. 13 Wisconsin as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 11
17. 17Virginia4-0▲4AP 18
    Beat Old Dominion 28-17 at home as a 27-point favorite · Was No. 21
18. 18Washington3-1▲4AP 17
    Won 45-19 at BYU as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
19. 19Utah3-1▼9AP 19
    Lost 30-23 at USC as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
20. 20USC3-1NewAP 21
    Beat No. 10 Utah 30-23 at home as a 3.5-point underdog · Was unranked
21. 21California4-0▲2AP 15
    Won 28-20 at Ole Miss as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 23
22. 22Texas A&M2-2▼5AP 23
    Lost 28-20 at home to No. 8 Auburn as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 17
23. 23SMU4-0NewAP NR
    Won 41-38 at No. 25 TCU as a 7.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24App State3-0NewAP NR
    Won 34-31 at North Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog · Was unranked
25. 25Baylor3-0NewAP NR
    Won 21-13 at Rice as a 27-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• UCF (was No. 15): Lost 35-34 at Pittsburgh as a 10-point favorite.
• Washington State (was No. 19): Lost 67-63 at home to UCLA as a 18.5-point favorite.
• Arizona State (was No. 24): Lost 34-31 at home to Colorado as a 8-point favorite.
• TCU (was No. 25): Lost 41-38 at home to SMU as a 7.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.