Projected AP Top 25 after week 6

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.5 places on average, with 13 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama6-0–AP 1
   Won 27-19 at Texas A&M as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Clemson6-0–AP 2
   Beat Wake Forest 28-14 at home as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Penn State6-0▲1AP 3
   Won 31-7 at Northwestern as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Georgia6-0▲1AP 4
   Won 45-14 at Vanderbilt as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Washington6-0▲1AP 5
   Beat California 38-7 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6TCU5-0▲2AP 6
   Beat No. 23 West Virginia 31-24 at home as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
7. 7Wisconsin5-0▲2AP 7
   Won 38-17 at Nebraska as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
8. 8Ohio State5-1▲2AP 9
   Beat Maryland 62-14 at home as a 30-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9Washington State6-0▲2AP 8
   Won 33-10 at Oregon as a 1.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10Auburn5-1▲2AP 10
    Beat Ole Miss 44-23 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11Miami4-0▲2AP 11
    Won 24-20 at Florida State as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12USC5-1▲2AP 13
    Beat Oregon State 38-10 at home as a 33-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Oklahoma4-1▼10AP 12
    Lost 38-31 at home to Iowa State as a 30.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
14. 14Oklahoma State4-1▲1AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 15
15. 15Virginia Tech5-1▲1AP 15
    Won 23-10 at Boston College as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
16. 16Michigan4-1▼9AP 17
    Lost 14-10 at home to Michigan State as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
17. 17San Diego State6-0▲2AP 19
    Won 41-10 at UNLV as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18South Florida5-0–AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 18
19. 19Notre Dame5-1▲2AP 16
    Won 33-10 at North Carolina as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20NC State5-1▲4AP 20
    Beat No. 17 Louisville 39-25 at home as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 24
21. 21UCF4-0▲4AP 22
    Won 51-23 at Cincinnati as a 15-point favorite · Was No. 25
22. 22Michigan State4-1NewAP 21
    Won 14-10 at No. 7 Michigan as a 12.5-point underdog · Was unranked
23. 23Iowa State3-2NewAP NR
    Won 38-31 at No. 3 Oklahoma as a 30.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Louisville4-2▼7AP NR
    Lost 39-25 at No. 24 NC State as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
25. 25Memphis4-1NewAP NR
    Won 70-31 at UConn as a 16-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Utah (was No. 20): Lost 23-20 at home to Stanford as a 3-point underdog.
• Florida (was No. 22): Lost 17-16 at home to LSU as a 1.5-point underdog.
• West Virginia (was No. 23): Lost 31-24 at No. 8 TCU as a 12.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.