Projected AP Top 25 after week 5

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.7 places on average, with 10 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama5-0–AP 1
   Beat Ole Miss 66-3 at home as a 30-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Clemson5-0–AP 2
   Won 31-17 at No. 12 Virginia Tech as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Oklahoma4-0–AP 3
   Off this week · Was No. 3
4. 4Penn State5-0–AP 4
   Beat Indiana 45-14 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Washington5-0▲1AP 6
   Won 42-7 at Oregon State as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Georgia5-0▲1AP 5
   Won 41-0 at Tennessee as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Michigan4-0▲1AP 7
   Off this week · Was No. 8
8. 8TCU4-0▲1AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 9
9. 9Wisconsin4-0▲1AP 9
   Beat Northwestern 33-24 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10Ohio State4-1▲1AP 10
    Won 56-0 at Rutgers as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Auburn4-1▲2AP 12
    Beat No. 24 Mississippi State 49-10 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12Washington State5-0▲4AP 11
    Beat No. 5 USC 30-27 at home as a 4.5-point underdog · Was No. 16
13. 13USC4-1▼8AP 14
    Lost 30-27 at No. 16 Washington State as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
14. 14Miami3-0–AP 13
    Won 31-6 at Duke as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
15. 15Oklahoma State4-1–AP 15
    Won 41-34 at Texas Tech as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
16. 16Louisville4-1▲1AP 17
    Beat Murray State 55-10 at home as a 49-point favorite · Was No. 17
17. 17South Florida5-0▲1AP 18
    Won 61-31 at East Carolina as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
18. 18Virginia Tech4-1▼6AP 16
    Lost 31-17 at home to No. 2 Clemson as a 7-point underdog · Was No. 12
19. 19San Diego State5-0–AP 19
    Beat Northern Illinois 34-28 at home as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
20. 20Florida3-1▲1AP 22
    Beat Vanderbilt 38-24 at home as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 21
21. 21Utah4-0▼1AP 20
    Off this week · Was No. 20
22. 22Notre Dame4-1–AP 21
    Beat Miami (OH) 52-17 at home as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 22
23. 23UCF3-0NewAP 25
    Beat Memphis 40-13 at home as a 5.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24West Virginia3-1▼1AP 23
    Off this week · Was No. 23
25. 25Navy4-0NewAP NR
    Won 31-21 at Tulsa as a 7.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Mississippi State (was No. 24): Lost 49-10 at No. 13 Auburn as a 7.5-point underdog.
• LSU (was No. 25): Lost 24-21 at home to Troy as a 20.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.