Projected AP Top 25 after week 14

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.9 places on average, with 9 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Clemson12-1–AP 1
   Beat No. 7 Miami 38-3 at a neutral site · Was No. 1
2. 2Oklahoma12-1–AP 2
   Beat No. 10 TCU 41-17 at a neutral site · Was No. 2
3. 3Georgia12-1▲3AP 3
   Beat No. 4 Auburn 28-7 at a neutral site · Was No. 6
4. 4Alabama11-1▲1AP 4
   Off this week · Was No. 5
5. 5Ohio State11-2▲3AP 5
   Beat No. 3 Wisconsin 27-21 at a neutral site · Was No. 8
6. 6Wisconsin12-1▼3AP 6
   Lost to No. 8 Ohio State 27-21 at a neutral site · Was No. 3
7. 7Penn State10-2▲2AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 9
8. 8USC11-2▲3AP 8
   Beat No. 14 Stanford 31-28 at a neutral site · Was No. 11
9. 9UCF12-0▲3AP 10
   Beat No. 16 Memphis 62-55 at a neutral site · Was No. 12
10. 10Auburn10-3▼6AP 7
    Lost to No. 6 Georgia 28-7 at a neutral site · Was No. 4
11. 11Washington10-2▲2AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 13
12. 12Miami10-2▼5AP 11
    Lost to No. 1 Clemson 38-3 at a neutral site · Was No. 7
13. 13Notre Dame9-3▲2AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 15
14. 14TCU10-3▼4AP 13
    Lost to No. 2 Oklahoma 41-17 at a neutral site · Was No. 10
15. 15LSU9-3▲2AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 17
16. 16Oklahoma State9-3▲2AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 18
17. 17Michigan State9-3▲2AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 19
18. 18Stanford9-4▼4AP 15
    Lost to No. 11 USC 31-28 at a neutral site · Was No. 14
19. 19Northwestern9-3▲1AP 20
    Off this week · Was No. 20
20. 20Washington State9-3▲1AP 21
    Off this week · Was No. 21
21. 21Virginia Tech9-3▲1AP 22
    Off this week · Was No. 22
22. 22Memphis10-2▼6AP 19
    Lost to No. 12 UCF 62-55 at a neutral site · Was No. 16
23. 23South Florida9-2–AP 23
    Off this week · Was No. 23
24. 24Mississippi State8-4–AP 24
    Off this week · Was No. 24
25. 25Toledo11-2NewAP NR
    Beat Akron 45-28 at a neutral site · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Fresno State (was No. 25): Lost to Boise State 17-14 at a neutral site.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.