Projected AP Top 25 after week 11

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.2 places on average, with 8 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama10-0–AP 1
   Won 31-24 at No. 18 Mississippi State as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Oklahoma9-1▲3AP 3
   Beat No. 8 TCU 38-20 at home as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 5
3. 3Clemson9-1▲1AP 4
   Beat Florida State 31-14 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Miami9-0▲3AP 2
   Beat No. 3 Notre Dame 41-8 at home as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 7
5. 5Wisconsin10-0▲1AP 5
   Beat No. 25 Iowa 38-14 at home as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Auburn8-2▲4AP 6
   Beat No. 2 Georgia 40-17 at home as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 10
7. 7Ohio State8-2▲4AP 8
   Beat No. 13 Michigan State 48-3 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
8. 8Georgia9-1▼6AP 7
   Lost 40-17 at No. 10 Auburn as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
9. 9Notre Dame8-2▼6AP 9
   Lost 41-8 at No. 7 Miami as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
10. 10Oklahoma State8-2▲2AP 10
    Won 49-42 at No. 24 Iowa State as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11UCF9-0▲3AP 14
    Beat UConn 49-24 at home as a 38-point favorite · Was No. 14
12. 12USC9-2▲3AP 12
    Won 38-24 at Colorado as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 15
13. 13TCU8-2▼5AP 11
    Lost 38-20 at No. 5 Oklahoma as a 6-point underdog · Was No. 8
14. 14Penn State8-2▲2AP 13
    Beat Rutgers 35-6 at home as a 31.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Washington State9-2▲4AP 15
    Won 33-25 at Utah as a 1-point favorite · Was No. 19
16. 16Michigan8-2▲5AP 19
    Won 35-10 at Maryland as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
17. 17Washington8-2▼8AP 16
    Lost 30-22 at Stanford as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 9
18. 18Memphis8-1▲2AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 20
19. 19Mississippi State7-3▼1AP 17
    Lost 31-24 at home to No. 1 Alabama as a 14.5-point underdog · Was No. 18
20. 20Michigan State7-3▼7AP 22
    Lost 48-3 at No. 11 Ohio State as a 17.5-point underdog · Was No. 13
21. 21South Florida8-1▲1AP 23
    Off this week · Was No. 22
22. 22West Virginia7-3▲1AP 24
    Won 28-23 at Kansas State as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 23
23. 23Stanford7-3NewAP 20
    Beat No. 9 Washington 30-22 at home as a 7-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Virginia Tech7-3▼7AP NR
    Lost 28-22 at Georgia Tech as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 17
25. 25Boise State8-2NewAP NR
    Won 59-52 at Colorado State as a 6.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Iowa State (was No. 24): Lost 49-42 at home to No. 12 Oklahoma State as a 7.5-point underdog.
• Iowa (was No. 25): Lost 38-14 at No. 6 Wisconsin as a 11.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.