Projected AP Top 25 after week 12

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.2 places on average, with 20 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama11-0–AP 1
   Beat Mercer 56-0 at home as a 49-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Miami10-0–AP 2
   Beat Virginia 44-28 at home as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Oklahoma10-1–AP 3
   Won 41-3 at Kansas as a 39.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Clemson10-1–AP 4
   Beat The Citadel 61-3 at home as a 47.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Wisconsin11-0–AP 5
   Beat No. 19 Michigan 24-10 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Auburn9-2–AP 6
   Beat UL Monroe 42-14 at home as a 38-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Georgia10-1–AP 7
   Beat Kentucky 42-13 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Ohio State9-2–AP 8
   Beat Illinois 52-14 at home as a 41-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Notre Dame9-2–AP 9
   Beat Navy 24-17 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10TCU9-2▲1AP 10
    Won 27-3 at Texas Tech as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11USC10-2▲1AP 11
    Beat UCLA 28-23 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Penn State9-2▲1AP 12
    Beat Nebraska 56-44 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13UCF10-0▲1AP 13
    Won 45-19 at Temple as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 14
14. 14Washington State9-2▲1AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 15
15. 15Washington9-2▲1AP 15
    Beat Utah 33-30 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
16. 16Mississippi State8-3▲1AP 16
    Won 28-21 at Arkansas as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 17
17. 17Memphis9-1▲1AP 17
    Beat SMU 66-45 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
18. 18Stanford8-3▲2AP 20
    Beat California 17-14 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19LSU8-3▲2AP 19
    Won 30-10 at Tennessee as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20Oklahoma State8-3▼10AP 18
    Lost 45-40 at home to Kansas State as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
21. 21Michigan State8-3▲1AP 21
    Beat Maryland 17-7 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 22
22. 22South Florida9-1▲1AP 22
    Beat Tulsa 27-20 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
23. 23Michigan8-3▼4AP NR
    Lost 24-10 at No. 5 Wisconsin as a 6.5-point underdog · Was No. 19
24. 24Boise State9-2NewAP 25
    Beat Air Force 44-19 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Toledo9-2NewAP NR
    Won 66-37 at Bowling Green as a 17.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• West Virginia (was No. 24): Lost 28-14 at home to Texas as a 3-point favorite.
• NC State (was No. 25): Lost 30-24 at Wake Forest as a 3-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.