Projected AP Top 25 after week 10

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.7 places on average, with 5 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama9-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 19 LSU 24-10 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Georgia9-0–AP 2
   Beat South Carolina 24-10 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Wisconsin9-0▲1AP 6
   Won 45-17 at Indiana as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Notre Dame8-1▲1AP 3
   Beat Wake Forest 48-37 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Clemson8-1▲1AP 4
   Won 38-31 at No. 20 NC State as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Oklahoma8-1▲2AP 5
   Won 62-52 at No. 11 Oklahoma State as a 1.5-point underdog · Was No. 8
7. 7Miami8-0▲2AP 7
   Beat No. 13 Virginia Tech 28-10 at home as a 2-point favorite · Was No. 9
8. 8TCU8-1▲2AP 8
   Beat Texas 24-7 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9Washington8-1▲3AP 9
   Beat Oregon 38-3 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
10. 10UCF8-0▲5AP 14
    Won 31-24 at SMU as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 15
11. 11Auburn7-2▲5AP 10
    Won 42-27 at Texas A&M as a 15-point favorite · Was No. 16
12. 12USC8-2▲5AP 15
    Beat No. 23 Arizona 49-35 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
13. 13Ohio State7-2▼10AP 11
    Lost 55-24 at Iowa as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 3
14. 14Penn State7-2▼7AP 16
    Lost 27-24 at No. 24 Michigan State as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 7
15. 15Oklahoma State7-2▼4AP 12
    Lost 62-52 at home to No. 8 Oklahoma as a 1.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
16. 16Michigan State7-2▲8AP 13
    Beat No. 7 Penn State 27-24 at home as a 10-point underdog · Was No. 24
17. 17Mississippi State7-2▲4AP 18
    Beat Massachusetts 34-23 at home as a 34-point favorite · Was No. 21
18. 18Virginia Tech7-2▼5AP 17
    Lost 28-10 at No. 9 Miami as a 2-point underdog · Was No. 13
19. 19Memphis8-1▲3AP 20
    Won 41-14 at Tulsa as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
20. 20Iowa6-3NewAP 25
    Beat No. 3 Ohio State 55-24 at home as a 21-point underdog · Was unranked
21. 21Washington State8-2▲4AP 19
    Beat No. 18 Stanford 24-21 at home as a 1.5-point underdog · Was No. 25
22. 22LSU6-3▼3AP NR
    Lost 24-10 at No. 1 Alabama as a 20.5-point underdog · Was No. 19
23. 23Iowa State6-3▼9AP 24
    Lost 20-16 at West Virginia as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 14
24. 24NC State6-3▼4AP NR
    Lost 38-31 at home to No. 6 Clemson as a 9.5-point underdog · Was No. 20
25. 25South Florida8-1NewAP 22
    Won 37-20 at UConn as a 24-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Stanford (was No. 18): Lost 24-21 at No. 25 Washington State as a 1.5-point favorite.
• Arizona (was No. 23): Lost 49-35 at No. 17 USC as a 6.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.