Projected AP Top 25 after week 3

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 21 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.1 places on average, with 4 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama3-0–AP 1
   Beat Colorado State 41-23 at home as a 31-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Oklahoma3-0–AP 3
   Beat Tulane 56-14 at home as a 33-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Clemson3-0–AP 2
   Won 47-21 at No. 14 Louisville as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4USC3-0–AP 5
   Beat Texas 27-24 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Penn State3-0–AP 4
   Beat Georgia State 56-0 at home as a 37.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Washington3-0–AP 7
   Beat Fresno State 48-16 at home as a 34-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Michigan3-0–AP 8
   Beat Air Force 29-13 at home as a 23-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Ohio State2-1–AP 10
   Beat Army 38-7 at home as a 31.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Oklahoma State3-0–AP 6
   Won 59-21 at Pittsburgh as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Wisconsin3-0–AP 9
    Won 40-6 at BYU as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 10
11. 11Florida State0-1–AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 11
12. 12Georgia3-0▲1AP 11
    Beat Samford 42-14 at home as a 33.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13Auburn2-1▲2AP 15
    Beat Mercer 24-10 at home as a 41-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14Virginia Tech3-0▲2AP 13
    Won 64-17 at East Carolina as a 27-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Miami1-0▲2AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 17
16. 16TCU3-0▲4AP 16
    Beat SMU 56-36 at home as a 22-point favorite · Was No. 20
17. 17Mississippi State3-0NewAP 17
    Beat No. 12 LSU 37-7 at home as a 7.5-point underdog · Was unranked
18. 18Washington State3-0▲3AP 18
    Beat Oregon State 52-23 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
19. 19South Florida3-0▲3AP 21
    Beat Illinois 47-23 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
20. 20Louisville2-1▼6AP 19
    Lost 47-21 at home to No. 3 Clemson as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 14
21. 21Notre Dame2-1NewAP NR
    Won 49-20 at Boston College as a 14-point favorite · Was unranked
22. 22Iowa3-0NewAP NR
    Beat North Texas 31-14 at home as a 20-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Florida1-1▲1AP 20
    Beat No. 23 Tennessee 26-20 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
24. 24Wake Forest3-0NewAP NR
    Beat Utah State 46-10 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25UCF1-0NewAP NR
    Off this week · Was unranked

Dropping out

• LSU (was No. 12): Lost 37-7 at Mississippi State as a 7.5-point favorite.
• Kansas State (was No. 18): Lost 14-7 at Vanderbilt as a 5-point favorite.
• Stanford (was No. 19): Lost 20-17 at San Diego State as a 9-point favorite.
• Tennessee (was No. 23): Lost 26-20 at No. 24 Florida as a 6.5-point underdog.
• UCLA (was No. 25): Lost 48-45 at Memphis as a 3-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.