Projected AP Top 25 after week 2

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 21 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1 place on average, with 8 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama2-0–AP 1
   Beat Fresno State 41-10 at home as a 42.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Clemson2-0▲1AP 3
   Beat No. 13 Auburn 14-6 at home as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 3
3. 3Oklahoma2-0▲2AP 2
   Won 31-16 at No. 2 Ohio State as a 7.5-point underdog · Was No. 5
4. 4Penn State2-0–AP 5
   Beat Pittsburgh 33-14 at home as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5USC2-0▲1AP 4
   Beat No. 14 Stanford 42-24 at home as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Washington2-0▲1AP 6
   Beat Montana 63-7 at home as a 38.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Michigan2-0▲1AP 7
   Beat Cincinnati 36-14 at home as a 32.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Ohio State1-1▼6AP 8
   Lost 31-16 at home to No. 5 Oklahoma as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
9. 9Wisconsin2-0–AP 10
   Beat Florida Atlantic 31-14 at home as a 34.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Oklahoma State2-0▲1AP 9
    Won 44-7 at South Alabama as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Florida State0-1▼1AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 10
12. 12LSU2-0–AP 12
    Beat Chattanooga 45-10 at home as a 36.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
13. 13Georgia2-0▲2AP 13
    Won 20-19 at No. 24 Notre Dame as a 5.5-point underdog · Was No. 15
14. 14Miami1-0▲2AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 16
15. 15Louisville2-0▲2AP 14
    Won 47-35 at North Carolina as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16Virginia Tech2-0▲2AP 16
    Beat Delaware 27-0 at home as a 41-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Kansas State2-0▲2AP 18
    Beat Charlotte 55-7 at home as a 33.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18Auburn1-1▼5AP 15
    Lost 14-6 at No. 3 Clemson as a 6-point underdog · Was No. 13
19. 19Washington State2-0▲1AP 21
    Beat Boise State 47-44 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
20. 20Wake Forest2-0NewAP NR
    Won 34-10 at Boston College as a 1-point underdog · Was unranked
21. 21Stanford1-1▼7AP 19
    Lost 42-24 at No. 6 USC as a 4-point underdog · Was No. 14
22. 22Iowa2-0NewAP NR
    Won 44-41 at Iowa State as a 3.5-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Mississippi State2-0NewAP NR
    Won 57-21 at Louisiana Tech as a 10.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24South Florida2-0▼3AP 22
    Off this week · Was No. 21
25. 25UCF1-0NewAP NR
    Off this week · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Florida (was No. 22): Off this week.
• TCU (was No. 23): Won 28-7 at Arkansas as a 3-point favorite.
• Notre Dame (was No. 24): Lost 20-19 at home to No. 15 Georgia as a 5.5-point favorite.
• Tennessee (was No. 25): Beat Indiana State 42-7 at home as a 37.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.