Projected AP Top 25 after week 1

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.1 places on average, with 7 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama1-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 3 Florida State 24-7 at a neutral site as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State1-0–AP 2
   Won 49-21 at Indiana as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3USC1-0▲1AP 6
   Beat Western Michigan 49-31 at home as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Clemson1-0▲1AP 3
   Beat Kent State 56-3 at home as a 38-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Penn State1-0▲1AP 4
   Beat Akron 52-0 at home as a 30-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Oklahoma1-0▲1AP 5
   Beat UTEP 56-7 at home as a 43.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Washington1-0▲1AP 7
   Won 30-14 at Rutgers as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Wisconsin1-0▲1AP 9
   Beat Utah State 59-10 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Florida State0-1▼6AP 10
   Lost to No. 1 Alabama 24-7 at a neutral site as a 7.5-point underdog · Was No. 3
10. 10Oklahoma State1-0–AP 11
    Beat Tulsa 59-24 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
11. 11Michigan1-0–AP 8
    Beat No. 17 Florida 33-17 at a neutral site as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
12. 12Auburn1-0–AP 13
    Beat Georgia Southern 41-7 at home as a 34.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
13. 13LSU1-0–AP 12
    Beat BYU 27-0 at a neutral site as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
14. 14Stanford1-0–AP 14
    Beat Rice 62-7 at a neutral site as a 33.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
15. 15Georgia1-0–AP 15
    Beat App State 31-10 at home as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
16. 16Louisville1-0–AP 17
    Beat Purdue 35-28 at a neutral site as a 25.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
17. 17Miami1-0▲1AP 16
    Beat Bethune-Cookman 41-13 at home as a 48-point favorite · Was No. 18
18. 18South Florida2-0▲1AP 21
    Beat Stony Brook 31-17 at home as a 36-point favorite · Was No. 19
19. 19Kansas State1-0▲1AP 19
    Beat Central Arkansas 55-19 at home as a 27-point favorite · Was No. 20
20. 20Virginia Tech1-0▲1AP 18
    Beat No. 22 West Virginia 31-24 at a neutral site as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
21. 21Notre Dame1-0NewAP 24
    Beat Temple 49-16 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was unranked
22. 22UCF1-0NewAP NR
    Beat Florida International 61-17 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23TCU1-0NewAP 23
    Beat Jackson State 63-0 at home as a 60-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Iowa1-0NewAP NR
    Beat Wyoming 24-3 at home as a 12-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Mississippi State1-0NewAP NR
    Beat Charleston Southern 49-0 at home as a 23-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Florida (was No. 17): Lost to No. 11 Michigan 33-17 at a neutral site as a 4.5-point underdog.
• West Virginia (was No. 22): Lost to No. 21 Virginia Tech 31-24 at a neutral site as a 4.5-point underdog.
• Texas (was No. 23): Lost 51-41 at home to Maryland as a 18.5-point favorite.
• Washington State (was No. 24): Beat Montana State 31-0 at home as a 40.5-point favorite.
• Tennessee (was No. 25): Beat Georgia Tech 42-41 at a neutral site as a 4-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.