Projected AP Top 25 after week 9

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.8 places on average, with 9 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama8-0–AP 1
   Off this week · Was No. 1
2. 2Georgia8-0▲1AP 2
   Beat Florida 42-7 at a neutral site as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
3. 3Ohio State7-1▲3AP 3
   Beat No. 2 Penn State 39-38 at home as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 6
4. 4Wisconsin8-0▲1AP 4
   Won 24-10 at Illinois as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Clemson7-1▲2AP 6
   Beat Georgia Tech 24-10 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 7
6. 6Penn State7-1▼4AP 7
   Lost 39-38 at No. 6 Ohio State as a 7-point underdog · Was No. 2
7. 7Notre Dame7-1▲2AP 5
   Beat No. 14 NC State 35-14 at home as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 9
8. 8Miami7-0–AP 9
   Won 24-19 at North Carolina as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Oklahoma7-1▲1AP 8
   Beat Texas Tech 49-27 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10Oklahoma State7-1▲1AP 11
    Won 50-39 at No. 22 West Virginia as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Washington7-1▲1AP 12
    Beat UCLA 44-23 at home as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Virginia Tech7-1▲1AP 13
    Beat Duke 24-3 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13TCU7-1▼9AP 10
    Lost 14-7 at No. 25 Iowa State as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 4
14. 14UCF7-0▲4AP 15
    Beat Austin Peay 73-33 at home as a 43.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
15. 15Iowa State6-2▲10AP 14
    Beat No. 4 TCU 14-7 at home as a 7-point underdog · Was No. 25
16. 16Auburn6-2▲3AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 19
17. 17USC7-2▲4AP 17
    Won 48-17 at Arizona State as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
18. 18Stanford6-2▲2AP 18
    Won 15-14 at Oregon State as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19NC State6-2▼5AP 20
    Lost 35-14 at No. 9 Notre Dame as a 7-point underdog · Was No. 14
20. 20Memphis7-1▲4AP 22
    Beat Tulane 56-26 at home as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
21. 21LSU6-2▲2AP 19
    Off this week · Was No. 23
22. 22Toledo7-1NewAP NR
    Won 58-17 at Ball State as a 26.5-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Arizona6-2NewAP 23
    Beat No. 15 Washington State 58-37 at home as a 1-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Michigan State6-2▼8AP 24
    Lost 39-31 at Northwestern as a 2-point favorite · Was No. 16
25. 25Michigan6-2NewAP NR
    Beat Rutgers 35-14 at home as a 22.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Washington State (was No. 15): Lost 58-37 at Arizona as a 1-point underdog.
• South Florida (was No. 17): Lost 28-24 at home to Houston as a 10-point favorite.
• West Virginia (was No. 22): Lost 50-39 at home to No. 11 Oklahoma State as a 9-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.