Projected AP Top 25 after week 8

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.4 places on average, with 15 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama8-0–AP 1
   Beat Tennessee 45-7 at home as a 36.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Penn State7-0–AP 2
   Beat No. 19 Michigan 42-13 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Georgia7-0–AP 3
   Off this week · Was No. 3
4. 4TCU7-0–AP 4
   Beat Kansas 43-0 at home as a 37.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Wisconsin7-0–AP 5
   Beat Maryland 38-13 at home as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Ohio State6-1–AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 6
7. 7Clemson6-1–AP 7
   Off this week · Was No. 7
8. 8Miami6-0–AP 8
   Beat Syracuse 27-19 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Oklahoma6-1–AP 10
   Won 42-35 at Kansas State as a 15-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Oklahoma State6-1–AP 11
    Won 13-10 at Texas as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 10
11. 11Notre Dame6-1▲2AP 9
    Beat No. 11 USC 49-14 at home as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12Washington6-1–AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 12
13. 13Virginia Tech6-1▲1AP 13
    Beat North Carolina 59-7 at home as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 14
14. 14Washington State7-1▲1AP 15
    Beat Colorado 28-0 at home as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 15
15. 15NC State6-1▲1AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 16
16. 16South Florida7-0▲1AP 17
    Won 34-28 at Tulane as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 17
17. 17Michigan State6-1▲1AP 16
    Beat Indiana 17-9 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
18. 18UCF6-0▲2AP 18
    Won 31-21 at Navy as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19Auburn6-2▲2AP 19
    Won 52-20 at Arkansas as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20USC6-2▼9AP 21
    Lost 49-14 at No. 13 Notre Dame as a 4-point underdog · Was No. 11
21. 21Stanford5-2▲1AP 20
    Off this week · Was No. 22
22. 22West Virginia5-2▲1AP 22
    Won 38-36 at Baylor as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
23. 23LSU6-2▲1AP 23
    Won 40-24 at Ole Miss as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
24. 24Memphis6-1▲1AP 24
    Won 42-38 at Houston as a 1-point underdog · Was No. 25
25. 25Michigan5-2▼6AP NR
    Lost 42-13 at No. 2 Penn State as a 7.5-point underdog · Was No. 19

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.