Projected AP Top 25 after week 7

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.3 places on average, with 6 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama7-0–AP 1
   Beat Arkansas 41-9 at home as a 37-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Penn State6-0▲1AP 2
   Off this week · Was No. 3
3. 3Georgia7-0▲1AP 3
   Beat Missouri 53-28 at home as a 29-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4TCU6-0▲2AP 4
   Won 26-6 at Kansas State as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
5. 5Wisconsin6-0▲2AP 5
   Beat Purdue 17-9 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 7
6. 6Ohio State6-1▲3AP 6
   Won 56-14 at Nebraska as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 9
7. 7Miami5-0▲4AP 8
   Beat Georgia Tech 25-24 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
8. 8Oklahoma5-1▲4AP 9
   Beat Texas 29-24 at a neutral site as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 12
9. 9Clemson6-1▼7AP 7
   Lost 27-24 at Syracuse as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 2
10. 10USC6-1▲3AP 11
    Beat Utah 28-27 at home as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 13
11. 11Oklahoma State5-1▲3AP 10
    Beat Baylor 59-16 at home as a 26-point favorite · Was No. 14
12. 12Virginia Tech5-1▲3AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 15
13. 13Washington6-1▼8AP 12
    Lost 13-7 at Arizona State as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 5
14. 14Notre Dame5-1▲2AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 16
15. 15Michigan5-1▲2AP 19
    Won 27-20 at Indiana as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16South Florida6-0▲2AP 17
    Beat Cincinnati 33-3 at home as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17NC State6-1▲3AP 16
    Won 35-17 at Pittsburgh as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 20
18. 18Auburn5-2▼8AP 21
    Lost 27-23 at LSU as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
19. 19UCF5-0▲3AP 20
    Beat East Carolina 63-21 at home as a 35-point favorite · Was No. 22
20. 20Michigan State5-1▲1AP 18
    Won 30-27 at Minnesota as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 21
21. 21Stanford5-2▲2AP 22
    Beat Oregon 49-7 at home as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 23
22. 22Washington State6-1▼14AP 15
    Lost 37-3 at California as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
23. 23LSU5-2NewAP 24
    Beat No. 10 Auburn 27-23 at home as a 6.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Arizona State3-3NewAP NR
    Beat No. 5 Washington 13-7 at home as a 18-point underdog · Was unranked
25. 25Boise State4-2NewAP NR
    Won 31-14 at No. 19 San Diego State as a 5.5-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• San Diego State (was No. 19): Lost 31-14 at home to Boise State as a 5.5-point favorite.
• Texas Tech (was No. 24): Lost 46-35 at West Virginia as a 5.5-point underdog.
• Navy (was No. 25): Lost 30-27 at Memphis as a 3.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.