Projected AP Top 25 after week 13

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.2 places on average, with 6 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Oklahoma11-1▲2AP 2
   Beat West Virginia 59-31 at home as a 23-point favorite · Was No. 3
2. 2Clemson11-1▲2AP 1
   Won 34-10 at South Carolina as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
3. 3Auburn10-2▲3AP 4
   Beat No. 1 Alabama 26-14 at home as a 5-point underdog · Was No. 6
4. 4Wisconsin12-0▲1AP 3
   Won 31-0 at Minnesota as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Georgia11-1▲2AP 6
   Won 38-7 at Georgia Tech as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
6. 6Alabama11-1▼5AP 5
   Lost 26-14 at No. 6 Auburn as a 5-point favorite · Was No. 1
7. 7Ohio State10-2▲1AP 8
   Won 31-20 at Michigan as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8TCU10-2▲2AP 10
   Beat Baylor 45-22 at home as a 25.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9Penn State10-2▲3AP 9
   Won 66-3 at Maryland as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
10. 10USC10-2▲1AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 11
11. 11Washington10-2▲4AP 13
    Beat No. 14 Washington State 41-14 at home as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
12. 12UCF11-0▲1AP 12
    Beat No. 22 South Florida 49-42 at home as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13Miami10-1▼11AP 7
    Lost 24-14 at Pittsburgh as a 12-point favorite · Was No. 2
14. 14Stanford9-3▲6AP 14
    Beat No. 9 Notre Dame 38-20 at home as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 20
15. 15Memphis10-1▲2AP 16
    Beat East Carolina 70-13 at home as a 29.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16Oklahoma State9-3▲2AP 18
    Beat Kansas 58-17 at home as a 41-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17LSU9-3▲2AP 17
    Beat Texas A&M 45-21 at home as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18Notre Dame9-3▼9AP 15
    Lost 38-20 at No. 20 Stanford as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 9
19. 19Michigan State9-3▲2AP 19
    Won 40-7 at Rutgers as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20Northwestern9-3▲3AP 20
    Won 42-7 at Illinois as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
21. 21Virginia Tech9-3▲3AP 22
    Won 10-0 at Virginia as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 24
22. 22Washington State9-3▼8AP 21
    Lost 41-14 at No. 15 Washington as a 9.5-point underdog · Was No. 14
23. 23Mississippi State8-4▼7AP 24
    Lost 31-28 at home to Ole Miss as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 16
24. 24Toledo10-2NewAP NR
    Beat Western Michigan 37-10 at home as a 12-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25San Diego State10-2NewAP NR
    Beat New Mexico 35-10 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• South Florida (was No. 22): Lost 49-42 at No. 13 UCF as a 10-point underdog.
• Boise State (was No. 25): Lost 28-17 at Fresno State as a 6.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.