Projected AP Top 25 after week 4

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.5 places on average, with 12 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama4-0–AP 1
   Won 59-0 at Vanderbilt as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Clemson4-0–AP 2
   Beat Boston College 34-7 at home as a 33.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Oklahoma4-0–AP 3
   Won 49-41 at Baylor as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Penn State4-0–AP 4
   Won 21-19 at Iowa as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5USC4-0–AP 5
   Won 30-20 at California as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Washington4-0▲1AP 6
   Won 37-10 at Colorado as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Michigan4-0▲1AP 8
   Won 28-10 at Purdue as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Georgia4-0▲3AP 7
   Beat No. 17 Mississippi State 31-3 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
9. 9Wisconsin3-0–AP 10
   Off this week · Was No. 9
10. 10Ohio State3-1–AP 11
    Beat UNLV 54-21 at home as a 40-point favorite · Was No. 10
11. 11TCU4-0▲5AP 9
    Won 44-31 at No. 6 Oklahoma State as a 10.5-point underdog · Was No. 16
12. 12Virginia Tech4-0▲1AP 12
    Beat Old Dominion 38-0 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13Miami2-0▲1AP 14
    Beat Toledo 52-30 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
14. 14Auburn3-1▲1AP 13
    Won 51-14 at Missouri as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
15. 15Oklahoma State3-1▼9AP 15
    Lost 44-31 at home to No. 16 TCU as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
16. 16Washington State4-0▲2AP 16
    Beat Nevada 45-7 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Louisville3-1▲2AP 17
    Beat Kent State 42-3 at home as a 41.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18South Florida4-0▲3AP 18
    Beat Temple 43-7 at home as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 21
19. 19Florida2-1▲1AP 21
    Won 28-27 at Kentucky as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 20
20. 20San Diego State4-0▲2AP 19
    Won 28-24 at Air Force as a 1.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21Utah4-0▲2AP 20
    Won 30-24 at Arizona as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
22. 22Florida State0-2▼10AP NR
    Lost 27-21 at home to NC State as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
23. 23UCF2-0NewAP NR
    Won 38-10 at Maryland as a 4.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24NC State3-1NewAP NR
    Won 27-21 at No. 12 Florida State as a 11.5-point underdog · Was unranked
25. 25LSU3-1–AP 25
    Beat Syracuse 35-26 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 25

Dropping out

• Mississippi State (was No. 17): Lost 31-3 at No. 11 Georgia as a 2.5-point underdog.
• Oregon (was No. 24): Lost 37-35 at Arizona State as a 14.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.