Projected AP Top 25 after week 9

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1 place on average, with 12 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama8-0–AP 1
   Off this week · Was No. 1
2. 2Michigan8-0–AP 2
   Won 32-23 at Michigan State as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Clemson8-0–AP 3
   Won 37-34 at No. 12 Florida State as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Washington8-0–AP 4
   Won 31-24 at No. 17 Utah as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Louisville7-1–AP 5
   Won 32-25 at Virginia as a 27-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Ohio State7-1–AP 6
   Beat Northwestern 24-20 at home as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Texas A&M7-1▲2AP 7
   Beat New Mexico State 52-10 at home as a 43.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
8. 8Wisconsin6-2▲3AP 8
   Beat No. 7 Nebraska 23-17 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
9. 9Florida6-1▲5AP 10
   Beat Georgia 24-10 at a neutral site as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
10. 10Nebraska7-1▼3AP 9
    Lost 23-17 at No. 11 Wisconsin as a 7.5-point underdog · Was No. 7
11. 11Auburn6-2▲4AP 11
    Won 40-29 at Ole Miss as a 2-point favorite · Was No. 15
12. 12Oklahoma6-2▲4AP 12
    Beat Kansas 56-3 at home as a 38.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
13. 13Florida State5-3▼1AP 19
    Lost 37-34 at home to No. 3 Clemson as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 12
14. 14Baylor6-1▼6AP 13
    Lost 35-34 at Texas as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
15. 15LSU5-2▲4AP 15
    Off this week · Was No. 19
16. 16Western Michigan8-0▲4AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 20
17. 17North Carolina6-2▲4AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 21
18. 18Utah7-2▼1AP 16
    Lost 31-24 at home to No. 4 Washington as a 11.5-point underdog · Was No. 17
19. 19West Virginia6-1▼9AP 14
    Lost 37-20 at Oklahoma State as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 10
20. 20Penn State6-2▲4AP 20
    Won 62-24 at Purdue as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
21. 21Boise State7-1▼8AP 24
    Lost 30-28 at Wyoming as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
22. 22Colorado6-2▲1AP 21
    Off this week · Was No. 23
23. 23Oklahoma State6-2NewAP 22
    Beat No. 10 West Virginia 37-20 at home as a 3-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Virginia Tech6-2▲1AP 23
    Won 39-36 at Pittsburgh as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 25
25. 25San Diego State7-1NewAP NR
    Won 40-13 at Utah State as a 3-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Tennessee (was No. 18): Lost 24-21 at South Carolina as a 14-point favorite.
• Navy (was No. 22): Lost 52-45 at South Florida as a 9-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.