Projected AP Top 25 after week 2

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.1 places on average, with 9 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama2-0–AP 1
   Beat Western Kentucky 38-10 at home as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Clemson2-0–AP 5
   Beat Troy 30-24 at home as a 34-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Florida State2-0–AP 2
   Beat Charleston Southern 52-8 at home as a 59.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Ohio State2-0–AP 3
   Beat Tulsa 48-3 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Michigan2-0–AP 4
   Beat UCF 51-14 at home as a 34.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Houston2-0–AP 6
   Beat Lamar 42-0 at home as a 48-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Stanford1-0–AP 7
   Off this week · Was No. 7
8. 8Washington2-0–AP 8
   Beat Idaho 59-14 at home as a 35-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Georgia2-0–AP 16
   Beat Nicholls 26-24 at home as a 49.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Wisconsin2-0–AP 9
    Beat Akron 54-10 at home as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 10
11. 11Texas2-0–AP 11
    Beat UTEP 41-7 at home as a 26-point favorite · Was No. 11
12. 12Louisville2-0▲1AP 10
    Won 62-28 at Syracuse as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13Michigan State1-0▼1AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 12
14. 14Oklahoma1-1–AP 14
    Beat UL Monroe 59-17 at home as a 44-point favorite · Was No. 14
15. 15Iowa2-0▲1AP 13
    Beat Iowa State 42-3 at home as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 16
16. 16Tennessee2-0▲1AP 15
    Beat Virginia Tech 45-24 at a neutral site as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 17
17. 17Notre Dame1-1▲1AP 18
    Beat Nevada 39-10 at home as a 26-point favorite · Was No. 18
18. 18Ole Miss1-1▲1AP 19
    Beat Wofford 38-13 at home as a 44.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
19. 19Texas A&M2-0▲1AP 17
    Beat Prairie View A&M 67-0 at home as a 49.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
20. 20LSU1-1▲1AP 20
    Beat Jacksonville State 34-13 at home as a 30-point favorite · Was No. 21
21. 21Baylor2-0▲2AP 21
    Beat SMU 40-13 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
22. 22Oregon2-0▲2AP 22
    Beat Virginia 44-26 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
23. 23Miami2-0▲2AP 25
    Beat Florida Atlantic 38-10 at home as a 23-point favorite · Was No. 25
24. 24Western Michigan2-0NewAP NR
    Beat North Carolina Central 70-21 at home · Was unranked
25. 25Colorado2-0NewAP NR
    Beat Idaho State 56-7 at home as a 41.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• TCU (was No. 15): Lost 41-38 at home to Arkansas as a 6-point favorite.
• Oklahoma State (was No. 22): Lost 30-27 at home to Central Michigan as a 19-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.