Projected AP Top 25 after week 6

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.9 places on average, with 10 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama6-0–AP 1
   Won 49-30 at No. 16 Arkansas as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State5-0–AP 2
   Beat Indiana 38-17 at home as a 32-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Clemson6-0–AP 3
   Won 56-10 at Boston College as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Michigan6-0–AP 4
   Won 78-0 at Rutgers as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Washington6-0–AP 5
   Won 70-21 at Oregon as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Texas A&M6-0▲2AP 6
   Beat No. 9 Tennessee 45-38 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
7. 7Louisville4-1–AP 7
   Off this week · Was No. 7
8. 8Wisconsin4-1▲3AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 11
9. 9Nebraska5-0▲3AP 10
   Off this week · Was No. 12
10. 10Baylor5-0▲3AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 13
11. 11Ole Miss3-2▲3AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 14
12. 12Tennessee5-1▼3AP 9
    Lost 45-38 at No. 8 Texas A&M as a 6.5-point underdog · Was No. 9
13. 13Houston5-1▼7AP 13
    Lost 46-40 at Navy as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 6
14. 14Boise State5-0▲5AP 15
    Won 49-21 at New Mexico as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
15. 15Florida4-1▲3AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 18
16. 16Florida State4-2▲7AP 14
    Won 20-19 at No. 10 Miami as a 1.5-point underdog · Was No. 23
17. 17Miami4-1▼7AP 16
    Lost 20-19 at home to No. 23 Florida State as a 1.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
18. 18Oklahoma3-2▲2AP 19
    Beat Texas 45-40 at a neutral site as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19Virginia Tech4-1▲6AP 17
    Won 34-3 at No. 17 North Carolina as a 5.5-point underdog · Was No. 25
20. 20Arkansas4-2▼4AP 22
    Lost 49-30 at home to No. 1 Alabama as a 13-point underdog · Was No. 16
21. 21West Virginia4-0▲1AP 20
    Off this week · Was No. 22
22. 22Utah5-1▲2AP 21
    Beat Arizona 36-23 at home as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 24
23. 23Navy4-1NewAP 25
    Beat No. 6 Houston 46-40 at home as a 17-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Western Michigan6-0NewAP 24
    Beat Northern Illinois 45-30 at home as a 19-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Washington State3-2NewAP NR
    Won 42-16 at No. 15 Stanford as a 12.5-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Stanford (was No. 15): Lost 42-16 at home to Washington State as a 12.5-point favorite.
• North Carolina (was No. 17): Lost 34-3 at home to No. 25 Virginia Tech as a 5.5-point favorite.
• Colorado (was No. 21): Lost 21-17 at USC as a 4-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.