Projected AP Top 25 after week 7

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1 place on average, with 13 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama7-0–AP 1
   Won 49-10 at No. 9 Tennessee as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State6-0–AP 2
   Won 30-23 at No. 8 Wisconsin as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Clemson7-0–AP 4
   Beat NC State 24-17 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Michigan6-0–AP 3
   Off this week · Was No. 4
5. 5Washington6-0–AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 5
6. 6Texas A&M6-0–AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 6
7. 7Louisville5-1–AP 7
   Beat Duke 24-14 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Nebraska6-0▲2AP 8
   Won 27-22 at Indiana as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9Baylor6-0▲2AP 9
   Beat Kansas 49-7 at home as a 35-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10Wisconsin4-2▼2AP 10
    Lost 30-23 at home to No. 2 Ohio State as a 9.5-point underdog · Was No. 8
11. 11Houston6-1▲2AP 11
    Beat Tulsa 38-31 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12Florida State5-2▲2AP 13
    Beat Wake Forest 17-6 at home as a 25.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Boise State6-0▲2AP 14
    Beat Colorado State 28-23 at home as a 25.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14Tennessee5-2▼5AP 18
    Lost 49-10 at home to No. 1 Alabama as a 9-point underdog · Was No. 9
15. 15Florida5-1▲3AP 15
    Beat Missouri 40-14 at home as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 18
16. 16Oklahoma4-2▲3AP 16
    Beat Kansas State 38-17 at home as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 19
17. 17Arkansas5-2▲5AP 17
    Beat No. 12 Ole Miss 34-30 at home as a 6.5-point underdog · Was No. 22
18. 18West Virginia5-0▲2AP 12
    Won 48-17 at Texas Tech as a 1-point underdog · Was No. 20
19. 19Utah6-1▲2AP 19
    Won 19-14 at Oregon State as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20Ole Miss3-3▼8AP 23
    Lost 34-30 at No. 22 Arkansas as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
21. 21Western Michigan7-0▲3AP 20
    Won 41-0 at Akron as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
22. 22Auburn4-2▲1AP 21
    Off this week · Was No. 23
23. 23South Florida6-1NewAP NR
    Beat UConn 42-27 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Colorado5-2NewAP NR
    Beat Arizona State 40-16 at home as a 8-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25North Carolina5-2NewAP 22
    Won 20-13 at No. 16 Miami as a 7-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Miami (was No. 16): Lost 20-13 at home to North Carolina as a 7-point favorite.
• Virginia Tech (was No. 17): Lost 31-17 at Syracuse as a 17-point favorite.
• Navy (was No. 25): Off this week.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.