Projected AP Top 25 after week 3

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 2.1 places on average, with 3 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama3-0–AP 1
   Won 48-43 at No. 19 Ole Miss as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State3-0▲1AP 2
   Won 45-24 at No. 14 Oklahoma as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
3. 3Michigan3-0▲1AP 4
   Beat Colorado 45-28 at home as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Clemson3-0▲1AP 5
   Beat South Carolina State 59-0 at home as a 54-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Houston3-0▲1AP 6
   Won 40-16 at Cincinnati as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Louisville3-0▲4AP 3
   Beat No. 2 Florida State 63-20 at home as a 4.5-point underdog · Was No. 10
7. 7Stanford2-0–AP 7
   Beat USC 27-10 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Washington3-0–AP 9
   Beat Portland State 41-3 at home as a 41.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Wisconsin3-0–AP 11
   Beat Georgia State 23-17 at home as a 30-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Michigan State2-0▲2AP 8
    Won 36-28 at No. 18 Notre Dame as a 7-point underdog · Was No. 12
11. 11Florida State2-1▼9AP 13
    Lost 63-20 at No. 10 Louisville as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
12. 12Tennessee3-0▲3AP 14
    Beat Ohio 28-19 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
13. 13Georgia3-0▲3AP 12
    Won 28-27 at Missouri as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 16
14. 14Texas A&M3-0▲3AP 10
    Won 29-16 at Auburn as a 4-point underdog · Was No. 17
15. 15Baylor3-0▲6AP 16
    Won 38-10 at Rice as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
16. 16LSU2-1▲4AP 18
    Beat Mississippi State 23-20 at home as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 20
17. 17Oklahoma1-2▼3AP 25
    Lost 45-24 at home to No. 3 Ohio State as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 14
18. 18Florida3-0▲5AP 19
    Beat North Texas 32-0 at home as a 35-point favorite · Was No. 23
19. 19Texas2-1▼8AP 21
    Lost 50-43 at California as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 11
20. 20Arkansas3-0▲4AP 17
    Beat Texas State 42-3 at home as a 32.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
21. 21Ole Miss1-2▼2AP 23
    Lost 48-43 at home to No. 1 Alabama as a 9.5-point underdog · Was No. 19
22. 22Iowa2-1▼9AP NR
    Lost 23-21 at home to North Dakota State as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
23. 23Miami3-0▲2AP 15
    Won 45-10 at App State as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 25
24. 24Western Michigan3-0NewAP NR
    Won 34-10 at Illinois as a 1.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Notre Dame1-2▼7AP NR
    Lost 36-28 at home to No. 12 Michigan State as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 18

Dropping out

• Oregon (was No. 22): Lost 35-32 at Nebraska as a 3-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.