Projected AP Top 25 after week 14

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 25 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1 place on average, with 8 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama13-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 15 Florida 54-16 at a neutral site · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State11-1–AP 2
   Off this week · Was No. 2
3. 3Clemson12-1–AP 3
   Beat No. 19 Virginia Tech 42-35 at a neutral site · Was No. 3
4. 4Washington12-1–AP 4
   Beat No. 9 Colorado 41-10 at a neutral site · Was No. 4
5. 5Michigan10-2–AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 5
6. 6Oklahoma10-2▲1AP 7
   Beat No. 11 Oklahoma State 38-20 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Penn State11-2▲1AP 5
   Beat No. 6 Wisconsin 38-31 at a neutral site · Was No. 8
8. 8USC9-3▲2AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 10
9. 9Wisconsin10-3▼3AP 8
   Lost to No. 8 Penn State 38-31 at a neutral site · Was No. 6
10. 10Florida State9-3▲2AP 10
    Off this week · Was No. 12
11. 11Western Michigan13-0▲2AP 12
    Beat Ohio 29-23 at a neutral site · Was No. 13
12. 12West Virginia10-2▲2AP 14
    Beat Baylor 24-21 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Colorado10-3▼4AP 11
    Lost to No. 4 Washington 41-10 at a neutral site · Was No. 9
14. 14Louisville9-3▲2AP 15
    Off this week · Was No. 16
15. 15Stanford9-3▲2AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 17
16. 16Oklahoma State9-3▼5AP 13
    Lost 38-20 at No. 7 Oklahoma as a 14-point underdog · Was No. 11
17. 17Auburn8-4▲1AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 18
18. 18Florida8-4▼3AP 20
    Lost to No. 1 Alabama 54-16 at a neutral site · Was No. 15
19. 19LSU7-4▲2AP 19
    Off this week · Was No. 21
20. 20Iowa8-4▲2AP 21
    Off this week · Was No. 22
21. 21Virginia Tech9-4▼2AP 18
    Lost to No. 3 Clemson 42-35 at a neutral site · Was No. 19
22. 22Nebraska9-3▲1AP 24
    Off this week · Was No. 23
23. 23Pittsburgh8-4▲1AP 22
    Off this week · Was No. 24
24. 24Temple10-3NewAP 23
    Beat No. 20 Navy 34-10 at a neutral site · Was unranked
25. 25South Florida10-2–AP 25
    Off this week · Was No. 25

Dropping out

• Navy (was No. 20): Lost to Temple 34-10 at a neutral site.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.