Projected AP Top 25 after week 10

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.8 places on average, with 7 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama9-0–AP 1
   Won 10-0 at No. 15 LSU as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Michigan9-0–AP 2
   Beat Maryland 59-3 at home as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Clemson9-0–AP 3
   Beat Syracuse 54-0 at home as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Washington9-0–AP 4
   Won 66-27 at California as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Ohio State8-1▲1AP 6
   Beat No. 9 Nebraska 62-3 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Louisville8-1▼1AP 5
   Won 52-7 at Boston College as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
7. 7Wisconsin7-2▲1AP 7
   Won 21-7 at Northwestern as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Auburn7-2▲3AP 8
   Beat Vanderbilt 23-16 at home as a 26-point favorite · Was No. 11
9. 9Oklahoma7-2▲3AP 9
   Won 34-24 at Iowa State as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
10. 10West Virginia7-1▲4AP 11
    Beat Kansas 48-21 at home as a 32-point favorite · Was No. 14
11. 11Western Michigan9-0▲6AP 14
    Won 52-20 at Ball State as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 17
12. 12Utah7-2▲4AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 16
13. 13North Carolina7-2▲5AP 15
    Beat Georgia Tech 48-20 at home as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
14. 14Nebraska7-2▼5AP 21
    Lost 62-3 at No. 6 Ohio State as a 15.5-point underdog · Was No. 9
15. 15Texas A&M7-2▼8AP 10
    Lost 35-28 at Mississippi State as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 7
16. 16Penn State7-2▲4AP 12
    Beat Iowa 41-14 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
17. 17Florida State6-3▲2AP 20
    Won 24-20 at NC State as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18LSU5-3▼3AP 19
    Lost 10-0 at home to No. 1 Alabama as a 7-point underdog · Was No. 15
19. 19Colorado7-2▲2AP 16
    Beat UCLA 20-10 at home as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20Oklahoma State7-2▲2AP 17
    Won 43-37 at Kansas State as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 22
21. 21Florida6-2▼11AP 22
    Lost 31-10 at Arkansas as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
22. 22Virginia Tech7-2▲1AP 18
    Won 24-21 at Duke as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 23
23. 23Boise State8-1▲1AP 24
    Beat San José State 45-31 at home as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
24. 24Washington State7-2▲1AP 23
    Beat Arizona 69-7 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
25. 25San Diego State8-1NewAP NR
    Beat Hawai'i 55-0 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Baylor (was No. 13): Lost 62-22 at home to TCU as a 9-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.