Projected AP Top 25 after week 8

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.1 places on average, with 9 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama8-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 6 Texas A&M 33-14 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Michigan7-0▲1AP 2
   Beat Illinois 41-8 at home as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 3
3. 3Clemson7-0▲1AP 3
   Off this week · Was No. 4
4. 4Washington7-0▲1AP 4
   Beat Oregon State 41-17 at home as a 31.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Louisville6-1▲2AP 5
   Beat NC State 54-13 at home as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 7
6. 6Nebraska7-0▲2AP 7
   Beat Purdue 27-14 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
7. 7Baylor6-0▲2AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 9
8. 8Wisconsin5-2▲2AP 11
   Won 17-9 at Iowa as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9West Virginia6-0▲3AP 10
   Beat TCU 34-10 at home as a 5-point favorite · Was No. 12
10. 10Texas A&M6-1▼4AP 9
    Lost 33-14 at No. 1 Alabama as a 16.5-point underdog · Was No. 6
11. 11Ohio State6-1▼9AP 6
    Lost 24-21 at Penn State as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 2
12. 12Florida State5-2▲1AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 13
13. 13Boise State7-0▲1AP 13
    Beat BYU 28-27 at home as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
14. 14Florida5-1▲1AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 15
15. 15Oklahoma5-2▲1AP 16
    Won 66-59 at Texas Tech as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 16
16. 16Auburn5-2▲5AP 15
    Beat No. 17 Arkansas 56-3 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 21
17. 17Tennessee5-2▲1AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 18
18. 18Utah7-1▲1AP 17
    Won 52-45 at UCLA as a 7-point underdog · Was No. 19
19. 19Western Michigan8-0▲1AP 20
    Beat Eastern Michigan 45-31 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
20. 20North Carolina6-2▲2AP 21
    Won 35-14 at Virginia as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21Penn State5-2NewAP 24
    Beat No. 2 Ohio State 24-21 at home as a 20-point underdog · Was unranked
22. 22Navy5-1▲2AP 22
    Beat Memphis 42-28 at home as a 2-point underdog · Was No. 24
23. 23LSU5-2▲2AP 19
    Beat No. 23 Ole Miss 38-21 at home as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
24. 24Houston6-2▼13AP NR
    Lost 38-16 at SMU as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 11
25. 25San Diego State6-1NewAP NR
    Beat San José State 42-3 at home as a 22.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Arkansas (was No. 17): Lost 56-3 at No. 21 Auburn as a 17-point underdog.
• Ole Miss (was No. 23): Lost 38-21 at No. 25 LSU as a 4.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.