Projected AP Top 25 after week 1

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 3.3 places on average, with 5 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama1-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 20 USC 52-6 at a neutral site as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Clemson1-0–AP 2
   Won 19-13 at Auburn as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Florida State1-0▲1AP 3
   Beat No. 11 Ole Miss 45-34 at a neutral site as a 5-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Ohio State1-0▲2AP 4
   Beat Bowling Green 77-10 at home as a 27-point favorite · Was No. 6
5. 5Michigan1-0▲2AP 5
   Beat Hawai'i 63-3 at home as a 40.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
6. 6Stanford1-0▲2AP 7
   Beat Kansas State 26-13 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
7. 7Tennessee1-0▲2AP 17
   Beat App State 20-13 at home as a 23-point favorite · Was No. 9
8. 8Houston1-0▲7AP 6
   Beat No. 3 Oklahoma 33-23 at a neutral site as a 10-point underdog · Was No. 15
9. 9Oklahoma0-1▼6AP 14
   Lost to No. 15 Houston 33-23 at a neutral site as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 3
10. 10Michigan State1-0▲2AP 12
    Beat Furman 28-13 at home as a 45-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11TCU1-0▲2AP 15
    Beat South Dakota State 59-41 at home as a 39.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12Washington1-0▲2AP 8
    Beat Rutgers 48-13 at home as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13LSU0-1▼8AP 21
    Lost to Wisconsin 16-14 at a neutral site as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
14. 14Iowa1-0▲3AP 16
    Beat Miami (OH) 45-21 at home as a 32-point favorite · Was No. 17
15. 15Ole Miss0-1▼4AP 19
    Lost to No. 4 Florida State 45-34 at a neutral site as a 5-point underdog · Was No. 11
16. 16Georgia1-0▲2AP 9
    Beat No. 22 North Carolina 33-24 at a neutral site as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Louisville1-0▲2AP 13
    Beat Charlotte 70-14 at home as a 39.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18Oklahoma State1-0▲3AP 22
    Beat SE Louisiana 61-7 at home as a 48.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
19. 19Wisconsin1-0NewAP 10
    Beat No. 5 LSU 16-14 at a neutral site as a 9.5-point underdog · Was unranked
20. 20Notre Dame0-1▼10AP 18
    Lost 50-47 at Texas as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
21. 21Baylor1-0▲2AP 23
    Beat Northwestern State 55-7 at home as a 48.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
22. 22Oregon1-0▲2AP 24
    Beat UC Davis 53-28 at home as a 47-point favorite · Was No. 24
23. 23Florida1-0▲2AP NR
    Beat Massachusetts 24-7 at home as a 37-point favorite · Was No. 25
24. 24Texas A&M1-0NewAP 20
    Beat No. 16 UCLA 31-24 at home as a 1-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Penn State1-0NewAP NR
    Beat Kent State 33-13 at home as a 19-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• UCLA (was No. 16): Lost 31-24 at Texas A&M as a 1-point underdog.
• USC (was No. 20): Lost to No. 1 Alabama 52-6 at a neutral site as a 9-point underdog.
• North Carolina (was No. 22): Lost to No. 18 Georgia 33-24 at a neutral site as a 3.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.