Projected AP Top 25 after week 11

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 2.1 places on average, with 4 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama10-0–AP 1
   Beat Mississippi State 51-3 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Louisville9-1▲3AP 3
   Beat Wake Forest 44-12 at home as a 33-point favorite · Was No. 5
3. 3Ohio State9-1▲3AP 2
   Won 62-3 at Maryland as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 6
4. 4Wisconsin8-2▲3AP 6
   Beat Illinois 48-3 at home as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
5. 5Oklahoma8-2▲4AP 8
   Beat No. 25 Baylor 45-24 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
6. 6West Virginia8-1▲5AP 10
   Won 24-20 at Texas as a 1-point favorite · Was No. 11
7. 7Penn State8-2▲5AP 9
   Won 45-31 at Indiana as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
8. 8Utah8-2▲5AP 11
   Won 49-26 at Arizona State as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
9. 9Michigan9-1▼7AP 4
   Lost 14-13 at Iowa as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
10. 10Clemson9-1▼7AP 5
    Lost 43-42 at home to Pittsburgh as a 19-point favorite · Was No. 3
11. 11Western Michigan10-0▲3AP 14
    Won 37-21 at Kent State as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
12. 12Colorado8-2▲4AP 12
    Won 49-24 at Arizona as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
13. 13Washington9-1▼9AP 7
    Lost 26-13 at home to USC as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 4
14. 14Oklahoma State8-2▲3AP 13
    Beat Texas Tech 45-44 at home as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 17
15. 15LSU6-3▲4AP 16
    Won 38-10 at Arkansas as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 19
16. 16Auburn7-3▼8AP 18
    Lost 13-7 at Georgia as a 8-point favorite · Was No. 8
17. 17Florida State7-3▲3AP 17
    Beat Boston College 45-7 at home as a 23-point favorite · Was No. 20
18. 18USC7-3NewAP 15
    Won 26-13 at No. 4 Washington as a 10-point underdog · Was unranked
19. 19Texas A&M7-3▼9AP 23
    Lost 29-28 at home to Ole Miss as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 10
20. 20Nebraska8-2▲1AP 19
    Beat Minnesota 24-17 at home as a 8-point favorite · Was No. 21
21. 21Florida7-2▲1AP 21
    Beat South Carolina 20-7 at home as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 22
22. 22Washington State8-2▲1AP 20
    Beat California 56-21 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
23. 23Boise State9-1▲1AP 22
    Won 52-16 at Hawai'i as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
24. 24Iowa6-4NewAP NR
    Beat No. 2 Michigan 14-13 at home as a 18.5-point underdog · Was unranked
25. 25San Diego State9-1NewAP 24
    Won 46-16 at Nevada as a 20.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• North Carolina (was No. 15): Lost 28-27 at Duke as a 10.5-point favorite.
• Virginia Tech (was No. 18): Lost 30-20 at home to Georgia Tech as a 14.5-point favorite.
• Baylor (was No. 25): Lost 45-24 at No. 9 Oklahoma as a 15.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.