Projected AP Top 25 after week 13

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 20 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.1 places on average, with 10 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama12-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 16 Auburn 30-12 at home as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State11-1–AP 2
   Beat No. 3 Michigan 30-27 at home as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Clemson11-1▲1AP 3
   Beat South Carolina 56-7 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Wisconsin10-2▲1AP 6
   Beat Minnesota 31-17 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Washington11-1▲1AP 4
   Won 45-17 at No. 23 Washington State as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Michigan10-2▼3AP 5
   Lost 30-27 at No. 2 Ohio State as a 7-point underdog · Was No. 3
7. 7Oklahoma9-2–AP 7
   Off this week · Was No. 7
8. 8Penn State10-2–AP 8
   Beat Michigan State 45-12 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Colorado10-2–AP 9
   Beat No. 21 Utah 27-22 at home as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Oklahoma State9-2–AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 10
11. 11USC9-3▲1AP 10
    Beat Notre Dame 45-27 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Florida State9-3▲3AP 12
    Beat No. 13 Florida 31-13 at home as a 5-point favorite · Was No. 15
13. 13Western Michigan12-0▲1AP 13
    Beat Toledo 55-35 at home as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
14. 14West Virginia9-2▲5AP 14
    Won 49-19 at Iowa State as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 19
15. 15Auburn8-4▲1AP 18
    Lost 30-12 at No. 1 Alabama as a 20-point underdog · Was No. 16
16. 16Louisville9-3▼5AP 16
    Lost 41-38 at home to Kentucky as a 26-point favorite · Was No. 11
17. 17Florida8-3▼4AP 15
    Lost 31-13 at No. 15 Florida State as a 5-point underdog · Was No. 13
18. 18LSU7-4▲7AP 21
    Won 54-39 at No. 22 Texas A&M as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 25
19. 19Utah8-4▲2AP NR
    Lost 27-22 at No. 9 Colorado as a 11-point underdog · Was No. 21
20. 20South Florida10-2NewAP 25
    Beat UCF 48-31 at home as a 9.5-point favorite · Was unranked
21. 21Houston9-3▼3AP NR
    Lost 48-44 at Memphis as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 18
22. 22Temple9-3NewAP NR
    Beat East Carolina 37-10 at home as a 19-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Western Kentucky9-3NewAP NR
    Won 60-6 at Marshall as a 21-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Iowa8-4NewAP 22
    Beat No. 17 Nebraska 40-10 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Troy9-2NewAP NR
    Won 40-7 at Texas State as a 26.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Nebraska (was No. 17): Lost 40-10 at Iowa as a 2.5-point underdog.
• Boise State (was No. 20): Lost 27-20 at Air Force as a 9-point favorite.
• Texas A&M (was No. 22): Lost 54-39 at home to No. 25 LSU as a 4-point underdog.
• Washington State (was No. 23): Lost 45-17 at home to No. 6 Washington as a 6-point underdog.
• Tennessee (was No. 24): Lost 45-34 at Vanderbilt as a 10-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.