Projected AP Top 25 after week 12

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1 place on average, with 10 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama11-0–AP 1
   Beat Chattanooga 31-3 at home as a 48.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State10-1–AP 2
   Won 17-16 at Michigan State as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Michigan10-1▲1AP 3
   Beat Indiana 20-10 at home as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Clemson10-1▲1AP 4
   Won 35-13 at Wake Forest as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Wisconsin9-2▲1AP 5
   Won 49-20 at Purdue as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Oklahoma9-2▲2AP 7
   Won 56-28 at No. 10 West Virginia as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
7. 7Washington10-1–AP 6
   Beat Arizona State 44-18 at home as a 26-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Penn State9-2▲1AP 8
   Won 39-0 at Rutgers as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Colorado9-2▲3AP 9
   Beat No. 20 Washington State 38-24 at home as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 12
10. 10Oklahoma State9-2▲3AP 10
    Won 31-6 at TCU as a 4.5-point underdog · Was No. 13
11. 11Western Michigan11-0▲3AP 14
    Beat Buffalo 38-0 at home as a 34-point favorite · Was No. 14
12. 12USC8-3▲3AP 12
    Won 36-14 at UCLA as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
13. 13Florida State8-3▲4AP 15
    Won 45-14 at Syracuse as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 17
14. 14Louisville9-2▼11AP 11
    Lost 36-10 at Houston as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 3
15. 15Auburn8-3▲3AP 16
    Beat Alabama A&M 55-0 at home as a 52-point favorite · Was No. 18
16. 16Nebraska9-2▲3AP 17
    Beat Maryland 28-7 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
17. 17Florida8-2▲4AP 13
    Won 16-10 at No. 16 LSU as a 10.5-point underdog · Was No. 21
18. 18West Virginia8-2▼8AP 19
    Lost 56-28 at home to No. 8 Oklahoma as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 10
19. 19Houston9-2NewAP 18
    Beat No. 3 Louisville 36-10 at home as a 17-point underdog · Was unranked
20. 20Utah8-3▼9AP 21
    Lost 30-28 at home to Oregon as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
21. 21Boise State10-1▲1AP 20
    Beat UNLV 42-25 at home as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
22. 22Texas A&M8-3▲1AP 22
    Beat UTSA 23-10 at home as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 23
23. 23LSU6-4▼7AP 25
    Lost 16-10 at home to No. 21 Florida as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
24. 24Toledo9-2NewAP NR
    Beat Ball State 37-19 at home as a 19-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Temple8-3NewAP NR
    Won 31-0 at Tulane as a 14.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Washington State (was No. 20): Lost 38-24 at No. 12 Colorado as a 6-point underdog.
• San Diego State (was No. 24): Lost 34-33 at Wyoming as a 7.5-point favorite.
• Troy (was No. 25): Lost 35-3 at home to Arkansas State as a 8.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.