Projected AP Top 25 after week 4

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1 place on average, with 12 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama4-0–AP 1
   Beat Kent State 48-0 at home as a 41.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State3-0–AP 2
   Off this week · Was No. 2
3. 3Louisville4-0–AP 3
   Won 59-28 at Marshall as a 23-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Michigan4-0–AP 4
   Beat Penn State 49-10 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Clemson4-0–AP 5
   Won 26-7 at Georgia Tech as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Houston4-0–AP 6
   Won 64-3 at Texas State as a 33-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Stanford3-0–AP 7
   Won 22-13 at UCLA as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Wisconsin4-0▲3AP 8
   Won 30-6 at No. 8 Michigan State as a 6-point underdog · Was No. 11
9. 9Texas A&M4-0▲1AP 9
   Beat No. 17 Arkansas 45-24 at a neutral site as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10Washington4-0▼1AP 10
    Won 35-28 at Arizona as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 9
11. 11Florida State3-1▲2AP 12
    Won 55-35 at South Florida as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12Tennessee4-0▲2AP 11
    Beat No. 19 Florida 38-28 at home as a 8-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Miami3-0▲2AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 15
14. 14Baylor4-0▲2AP 13
    Beat Oklahoma State 35-24 at home as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Michigan State2-1▼7AP 17
    Lost 30-6 at home to No. 11 Wisconsin as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 8
16. 16Ole Miss2-2▲7AP 16
    Beat No. 12 Georgia 45-14 at home as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 23
17. 17Nebraska4-0▲3AP 15
    Won 24-13 at Northwestern as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
18. 18Texas2-1▲3AP 22
    Off this week · Was No. 21
19. 19San Diego State3-0▲3AP 19
    Off this week · Was No. 22
20. 20Utah4-0▲4AP 18
    Beat USC 31-27 at home as a 2-point favorite · Was No. 24
21. 21Georgia3-1▼9AP 25
    Lost 45-14 at No. 23 Ole Miss as a 6-point underdog · Was No. 12
22. 22Western Michigan4-0NewAP NR
    Beat Georgia Southern 49-31 at home as a 4-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Arkansas3-1▼6AP 20
    Lost to No. 10 Texas A&M 45-24 at a neutral site as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 17
24. 24Oklahoma1-2▲1AP NR
    Off this week · Was No. 25
25. 25Boise State3-0NewAP 24
    Won 38-24 at Oregon State as a 14-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• LSU (was No. 18): Lost 18-13 at Auburn as a 4-point favorite.
• Florida (was No. 19): Lost 38-28 at No. 14 Tennessee as a 8-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.