Projected AP Top 25 after week 5

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.1 places on average, with 10 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama5-0–AP 1
   Beat Kentucky 34-6 at home as a 32.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State4-0–AP 2
   Beat Rutgers 58-0 at home as a 37-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Michigan5-0▲1AP 4
   Beat No. 8 Wisconsin 14-7 at home as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Clemson5-0▲1AP 3
   Beat No. 3 Louisville 42-36 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Houston5-0▲1AP 6
   Beat UConn 42-14 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Washington5-0▲4AP 5
   Beat No. 7 Stanford 44-6 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
7. 7Louisville4-1▼4AP 7
   Lost 42-36 at No. 5 Clemson as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 3
8. 8Texas A&M5-0▲1AP 8
   Won 24-13 at South Carolina as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Tennessee5-0▲2AP 9
   Won 34-31 at No. 25 Georgia as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10Baylor5-0▲3AP 13
    Won 45-42 at Iowa State as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 13
11. 11Wisconsin4-1▼3AP 11
    Lost 14-7 at No. 4 Michigan as a 10-point underdog · Was No. 8
12. 12Miami4-0▲2AP 10
    Won 35-21 at Georgia Tech as a 5-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Nebraska5-0▲2AP 12
    Beat Illinois 31-16 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14Ole Miss3-2▲2AP 14
    Beat Memphis 48-28 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Stanford3-1▼8AP 15
    Lost 44-6 at No. 10 Washington as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 7
16. 16Arkansas4-1▲4AP 16
    Beat Alcorn State 52-10 at home as a 53-point favorite · Was No. 20
17. 17Western Michigan5-0NewAP NR
    Won 49-10 at Central Michigan as a 4-point favorite · Was unranked
18. 18Florida State3-2▼6AP 23
    Lost 37-35 at home to North Carolina as a 12-point favorite · Was No. 12
19. 19North Carolina4-1NewAP 17
    Won 37-35 at No. 12 Florida State as a 12-point underdog · Was unranked
20. 20Florida4-1▲3AP 18
    Won 13-6 at Vanderbilt as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
21. 21Colorado4-1NewAP 21
    Beat Oregon State 47-6 at home as a 16-point favorite · Was unranked
22. 22Boise State4-0▲2AP 19
    Beat Utah State 21-10 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
23. 23South Florida4-1NewAP NR
    Won 45-20 at Cincinnati as a 6-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24West Virginia4-0NewAP 22
    Beat Kansas State 17-16 at home as a 5.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Maryland4-0NewAP NR
    Beat Purdue 50-7 at home as a 9-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Michigan State (was No. 17): Lost 24-21 at Indiana as a 8-point favorite.
• Utah (was No. 18): Lost 28-23 at California as a 2-point underdog.
• San Diego State (was No. 19): Lost 42-24 at South Alabama as a 17.5-point favorite.
• TCU (was No. 21): Lost 52-46 at home to Oklahoma as a 3.5-point underdog.
• Texas (was No. 22): Lost 49-31 at Oklahoma State as a 3-point underdog.
• Georgia (was No. 25): Lost 34-31 at home to No. 11 Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.