Projected AP Top 25 after week 9

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.9 places on average, with 14 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia8-0–AP 1
   Beat Florida 34-7 at a neutral site as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Cincinnati8-0–AP 2
   Won 31-12 at Tulane as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Alabama7-1–AP 3
   Off this week · Was No. 3
4. 4Oklahoma9-0–AP 4
   Beat Texas Tech 52-21 at home as a 19-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Ohio State7-1–AP 6
   Beat No. 20 Penn State 33-24 at home as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Michigan State8-0▲2AP 5
   Beat No. 6 Michigan 37-33 at home as a 4-point underdog · Was No. 8
7. 7Oregon7-1–AP 7
   Beat Colorado 52-29 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Notre Dame7-1▲3AP 8
   Beat North Carolina 44-34 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
9. 9Michigan7-1▼3AP 9
   Lost 37-33 at No. 8 Michigan State as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 6
10. 10Wake Forest8-0▲3AP 10
    Beat Duke 45-7 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
11. 11Oklahoma State7-1▲4AP 11
    Beat Kansas 55-3 at home as a 29-point favorite · Was No. 15
12. 12Auburn6-2▲6AP 12
    Beat No. 10 Ole Miss 31-20 at home as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 18
13. 13Texas A&M6-2▲1AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 14
14. 14Baylor7-1▲2AP 14
    Beat Texas 31-24 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Ole Miss6-2▼5AP 15
    Lost 31-20 at No. 18 Auburn as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 10
16. 16Iowa6-2▼7AP 19
    Lost 27-7 at Wisconsin as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 9
17. 17Wisconsin5-3NewAP NR
    Beat No. 9 Iowa 27-7 at home as a 3-point favorite · Was unranked
18. 18Coastal Carolina7-1▲6AP 21
    Beat Troy 35-28 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 24
19. 19UTSA8-0▲4AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 23
20. 20Kentucky6-2▼8AP 18
    Lost 31-17 at Mississippi State as a 1-point underdog · Was No. 12
21. 21BYU7-2▲4AP 17
    Beat Virginia 66-49 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
22. 22Houston7-1NewAP 20
    Beat No. 19 SMU 44-37 at home as a 1-point underdog · Was unranked
23. 23Penn State5-3▼3AP 22
    Lost 33-24 at No. 5 Ohio State as a 18.5-point underdog · Was No. 20
24. 24Louisiana7-1NewAP 24
    Beat Texas State 45-0 at home as a 21-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Mississippi State5-3NewAP NR
    Beat No. 12 Kentucky 31-17 at home as a 1-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Pittsburgh (was No. 17): Lost 38-34 at home to Miami as a 9.5-point favorite.
• SMU (was No. 19): Lost 44-37 at Houston as a 1-point favorite.
• San Diego State (was No. 21): Lost 30-20 at home to Fresno State as a 2.5-point underdog.
• Iowa State (was No. 22): Lost 38-31 at West Virginia as a 7.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.