Projected AP Top 25 after week 13

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.6 places on average, with 15 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia12-0–AP 1
   Won 45-0 at Georgia Tech as a 35.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama11-1▲1AP 4
   Won 24-22 at Auburn as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
3. 3Cincinnati12-0▲1AP 3
   Won 35-13 at East Carolina as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Michigan11-1▲2AP 2
   Beat No. 2 Ohio State 42-27 at home as a 6.5-point underdog · Was No. 6
5. 5Notre Dame11-1–AP 6
   Won 45-14 at Stanford as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Oklahoma State11-1▲1AP 5
   Beat No. 10 Oklahoma 37-33 at home as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Ole Miss10-2▲1AP 8
   Won 31-21 at Mississippi State as a 2-point underdog · Was No. 8
8. 8Ohio State10-2▼6AP 7
   Lost 42-27 at No. 6 Michigan as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
9. 9Baylor10-2–AP 9
   Beat Texas Tech 27-24 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Oregon10-2▲1AP 10
    Beat Oregon State 38-29 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Michigan State10-2▲1AP 11
    Beat Penn State 30-27 at home as a 4.5-point underdog · Was No. 12
12. 12BYU10-2▲1AP 12
    Won 35-31 at USC as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13Oklahoma10-2▼3AP 13
    Lost 37-33 at No. 7 Oklahoma State as a 4-point underdog · Was No. 10
14. 14Utah9-3▲2AP 14
    Beat Colorado 28-13 at home as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Iowa10-2▲2AP 15
    Won 28-21 at Nebraska as a 1-point underdog · Was No. 17
16. 16Houston11-1▲3AP 16
    Won 45-17 at UConn as a 32-point favorite · Was No. 19
17. 17Pittsburgh10-2▲3AP 17
    Won 31-14 at Syracuse as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
18. 18Wake Forest10-2▲3AP 18
    Won 41-10 at Boston College as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
19. 19San Diego State11-1▲3AP 19
    Beat Boise State 27-16 at home as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 22
20. 20Louisiana11-1▲3AP 20
    Beat UL Monroe 21-16 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
21. 21Texas A&M8-4▼7AP 24
    Lost 27-24 at LSU as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
22. 22NC State9-3▲2AP 21
    Beat North Carolina 34-30 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
23. 23Arkansas8-4▲2AP 23
    Beat Missouri 34-17 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
24. 24App State10-2NewAP NR
    Beat Georgia Southern 27-3 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Clemson9-3NewAP 22
    Won 30-0 at South Carolina as a 11.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• UTSA (was No. 15): Lost 45-23 at North Texas as a 8.5-point favorite.
• Wisconsin (was No. 18): Lost 23-13 at Minnesota as a 7-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.