Projected AP Top 25 after week 4

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.3 places on average, with 12 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama4-0–AP 1
   Beat Southern Miss 63-14 at home as a 45-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Georgia4-0–AP 2
   Won 62-0 at Vanderbilt as a 36-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Oregon4-0–AP 3
   Beat Arizona 41-19 at home as a 29.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Oklahoma4-0–AP 6
   Beat West Virginia 16-13 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Iowa4-0–AP 5
   Beat Colorado State 24-14 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Penn State4-0–AP 4
   Beat Villanova 38-17 at home as a 29.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Cincinnati3-0▲1AP 7
   Off this week · Was No. 8
8. 8Ohio State3-1▲2AP 11
   Beat Akron 59-7 at home as a 48.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9Notre Dame4-0▲3AP 9
   Beat No. 18 Wisconsin 41-13 at a neutral site as a 6-point underdog · Was No. 12
10. 10Florida3-1▲1AP 10
    Beat Tennessee 38-14 at home as a 19-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Arkansas4-0▲5AP 8
    Beat No. 7 Texas A&M 20-10 at a neutral site as a 4.5-point underdog · Was No. 16
12. 12Ole Miss3-0▲1AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 13
13. 13BYU4-0▲2AP 13
    Beat South Florida 35-27 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14Texas A&M3-1▼7AP 15
    Lost to No. 16 Arkansas 20-10 at a neutral site as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
15. 15Coastal Carolina4-0▲2AP 16
    Beat Massachusetts 53-3 at home as a 36-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16Michigan4-0▲3AP 14
    Beat Rutgers 20-13 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
17. 17Clemson2-2▼8AP 25
    Lost 27-21 at NC State as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
18. 18Michigan State4-0▲2AP 17
    Beat Nebraska 23-20 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19NC State3-1NewAP 23
    Beat No. 9 Clemson 27-21 at home as a 10.5-point underdog · Was unranked
20. 20Fresno State4-1▲2AP 18
    Beat UNLV 38-30 at home as a 30-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21Baylor4-0NewAP 21
    Beat No. 14 Iowa State 31-29 at home as a 7-point underdog · Was unranked
22. 22Auburn3-1▲1AP 22
    Beat Georgia State 34-24 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
23. 23UCLA3-1▲1AP 20
    Won 35-24 at Stanford as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 24
24. 24Wake Forest4-0NewAP 24
    Won 37-17 at Virginia as a 3.5-point underdog · Was unranked
25. 25Iowa State2-2▼11AP NR
    Lost 31-29 at Baylor as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 14

Dropping out

• Wisconsin (was No. 18): Lost to No. 12 Notre Dame 41-13 at a neutral site as a 6-point favorite.
• North Carolina (was No. 21): Lost to Georgia Tech 45-22 at a neutral site as a 14.5-point favorite.
• Kansas State (was No. 25): Lost 31-20 at Oklahoma State as a 6-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.