Projected AP Top 25 after week 8

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.9 places on average, with 11 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia7-0–AP 1
   Off this week · Was No. 1
2. 2Cincinnati7-0–AP 2
   Won 27-20 at Navy as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Oklahoma8-0–AP 4
   Won 35-23 at Kansas as a 38.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Alabama7-1–AP 3
   Beat Tennessee 52-24 at home as a 25.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Ohio State6-1–AP 5
   Won 54-7 at Indiana as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Michigan7-0–AP 6
   Beat Northwestern 33-7 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Michigan State7-0▲2AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 9
8. 8Oregon6-1▲2AP 7
   Won 34-31 at UCLA as a 1-point underdog · Was No. 10
9. 9Iowa6-1▲2AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 11
10. 10Ole Miss6-1▲2AP 10
    Beat LSU 31-17 at home as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11Notre Dame6-1▲2AP 11
    Beat USC 31-16 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12Kentucky6-1▲3AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 15
13. 13Wake Forest7-0▲3AP 13
    Won 70-56 at Army as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 16
14. 14Texas A&M6-2▲3AP 14
    Beat South Carolina 44-14 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
15. 15Penn State5-2▼8AP 20
    Lost 20-18 at home to Illinois as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
16. 16Oklahoma State6-1▼8AP 15
    Lost 24-21 at Iowa State as a 7-point underdog · Was No. 8
17. 17Auburn5-2▲2AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 19
18. 18SMU7-0▲3AP 19
    Beat Tulane 55-26 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 21
19. 19Baylor6-1▲1AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 20
20. 20San Diego State7-0▲2AP 21
    Won 20-14 at Air Force as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 22
21. 21Pittsburgh6-1▲2AP 17
    Beat Clemson 27-17 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
22. 22UTSA8-0▲2AP 23
    Won 45-16 at Louisiana Tech as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
23. 23Iowa State5-2NewAP 22
    Beat No. 8 Oklahoma State 24-21 at home as a 7-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Coastal Carolina6-1▼10AP 24
    Lost 30-27 at App State as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
25. 25App State5-2NewAP NR
    Beat No. 14 Coastal Carolina 30-27 at home as a 4.5-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• NC State (was No. 18): Lost 31-30 at Miami as a 3.5-point favorite.
• Purdue (was No. 25): Lost 30-13 at home to Wisconsin as a 3.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.