Projected AP Top 25 after week 14

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.1 places on average, with 3 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Michigan12-1▲1AP 2
   Beat No. 15 Iowa 42-3 at a neutral site · Was No. 2
2. 2Alabama12-1▲2AP 1
   Beat No. 1 Georgia 41-24 at a neutral site · Was No. 4
3. 3Cincinnati13-0–AP 4
   Beat No. 16 Houston 35-20 at a neutral site · Was No. 3
4. 4Notre Dame11-1▲2AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 6
5. 5Baylor11-2▲4AP 6
   Beat No. 5 Oklahoma State 21-16 at a neutral site · Was No. 9
6. 6Ohio State10-2▲1AP 7
   Off this week · Was No. 7
7. 7Georgia12-1▼6AP 3
   Lost to No. 4 Alabama 41-24 at a neutral site · Was No. 1
8. 8Ole Miss10-2–AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 8
9. 9Utah10-3▲5AP 10
   Beat No. 10 Oregon 38-10 at a neutral site · Was No. 14
10. 10Oklahoma State11-2▼5AP 9
    Lost to No. 9 Baylor 21-16 at a neutral site · Was No. 5
11. 11Michigan State10-2–AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 11
12. 12BYU10-2–AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 12
13. 13Oklahoma10-2–AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 13
14. 14Pittsburgh11-2▲3AP 13
    Beat No. 18 Wake Forest 45-21 at a neutral site · Was No. 17
15. 15Louisiana12-1▲5AP 16
    Beat App State 24-16 at a neutral site · Was No. 20
16. 16Oregon10-3▼6AP 15
    Lost to No. 14 Utah 38-10 at a neutral site · Was No. 10
17. 17NC State9-3▲4AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 21
18. 18Houston11-2▼2AP 21
    Lost to No. 3 Cincinnati 35-20 at a neutral site · Was No. 16
19. 19Iowa10-3▼4AP 17
    Lost to No. 2 Michigan 42-3 at a neutral site · Was No. 15
20. 20Clemson9-3▲2AP 19
    Off this week · Was No. 22
21. 21Arkansas8-4▲2AP 22
    Off this week · Was No. 23
22. 22Texas A&M8-4▲2AP 23
    Off this week · Was No. 24
23. 23UTSA12-1NewAP 24
    Beat Western Kentucky 49-41 at a neutral site · Was unranked
24. 24Kentucky9-3▲1AP 25
    Off this week · Was No. 25
25. 25Utah State10-3NewAP NR
    Beat No. 19 San Diego State 46-13 at a neutral site · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Wake Forest (was No. 18): Lost to No. 17 Pittsburgh 45-21 at a neutral site.
• San Diego State (was No. 19): Lost to Utah State 46-13 at a neutral site.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.