Projected AP Top 25 after week 10

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 2 places on average, with 6 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia9-0–AP 1
   Beat Missouri 43-6 at home as a 40-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Cincinnati9-0–AP 2
   Beat Tulsa 28-20 at home as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Alabama8-1–AP 3
   Beat LSU 20-14 at home as a 29-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Oklahoma9-0–AP 4
   Off this week · Was No. 4
5. 5Ohio State8-1▲1AP 6
   Won 26-17 at Nebraska as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Oregon8-1▲1AP 5
   Won 26-16 at Washington as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Notre Dame8-1▲1AP 7
   Beat Navy 34-6 at home as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Michigan8-1▲1AP 9
   Beat Indiana 29-7 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Texas A&M7-2▲4AP 11
   Beat No. 12 Auburn 20-3 at home as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
10. 10Oklahoma State8-1▲1AP 10
    Won 24-3 at West Virginia as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Ole Miss7-2▲4AP 12
    Beat Liberty 27-14 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
12. 12UTSA9-0▲4AP 15
    Won 44-23 at UTEP as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
13. 13BYU8-2▲4AP 14
    Beat Idaho State 59-14 at home as a 36.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
14. 14Michigan State8-1▼9AP 8
    Lost 40-29 at Purdue as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
15. 15Iowa7-2▲4AP 19
    Won 17-12 at Northwestern as a 12-point favorite · Was No. 19
16. 16Houston8-1▲4AP 17
    Won 54-42 at South Florida as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
17. 17Coastal Carolina8-1▲4AP 22
    Won 28-8 at Georgia Southern as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 21
18. 18Auburn6-3▼6AP 16
    Lost 20-3 at No. 13 Texas A&M as a 4.5-point underdog · Was No. 12
19. 19Wake Forest8-1▼9AP 13
    Lost 58-55 at North Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 10
20. 20Penn State6-3▲2AP 23
    Won 31-14 at Maryland as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21Purdue6-3NewAP NR
    Beat No. 5 Michigan State 40-29 at home as a 2.5-point underdog · Was unranked
22. 22Louisiana8-1▲2AP 24
    Beat Georgia State 21-17 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
23. 23Baylor7-2▼9AP 18
    Lost 30-28 at TCU as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
24. 24Pittsburgh7-2NewAP 25
    Won 54-29 at Duke as a 21-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25App State7-2NewAP NR
    Won 48-14 at Arkansas State as a 21.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Kentucky (was No. 18): Lost 45-42 at home to Tennessee as a 1-point underdog.
• SMU (was No. 23): Lost 28-25 at Memphis as a 3.5-point favorite.
• Fresno State (was No. 25): Lost 40-14 at home to Boise State as a 4-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.