Projected AP Top 25 after week 6

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.4 places on average, with 6 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia6-0▲1AP 1
   Won 34-10 at No. 18 Auburn as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
2. 2Iowa6-0▲1AP 2
   Beat No. 4 Penn State 23-20 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
3. 3Cincinnati5-0▲2AP 3
   Beat Temple 52-3 at home as a 30-point favorite · Was No. 5
4. 4Oklahoma6-0▲2AP 4
   Beat No. 21 Texas 55-48 at a neutral site as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 6
5. 5Ohio State5-1▲2AP 6
   Beat Maryland 66-17 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
6. 6Penn State5-1▼2AP 7
   Lost 23-20 at No. 3 Iowa as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 4
7. 7Oregon4-1▲1AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 8
8. 8Michigan6-0▲1AP 8
   Won 32-29 at Nebraska as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Michigan State6-0▲2AP 10
   Won 31-13 at Rutgers as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10Alabama5-1▼9AP 5
    Lost 41-38 at Texas A&M as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
11. 11Oklahoma State5-0▲1AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 12
12. 12Notre Dame5-1▲2AP 14
    Won 32-29 at Virginia Tech as a 1-point underdog · Was No. 14
13. 13Coastal Carolina6-0▲2AP 15
    Won 52-20 at Arkansas State as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14Ole Miss4-1▲3AP 13
    Beat No. 13 Arkansas 52-51 at home as a 5-point favorite · Was No. 17
15. 15Kentucky6-0▲1AP 11
    Beat LSU 42-21 at home as a 2-point favorite · Was No. 16
16. 16Florida4-2▲4AP 20
    Beat Vanderbilt 42-0 at home as a 39-point favorite · Was No. 20
17. 17Wake Forest6-0▲2AP 16
    Won 40-37 at Syracuse as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18Arkansas4-2▼5AP 17
    Lost 52-51 at No. 17 Ole Miss as a 5-point underdog · Was No. 13
19. 19Texas A&M4-2NewAP 21
    Beat No. 1 Alabama 41-38 at home as a 18.5-point underdog · Was unranked
20. 20Arizona State5-1▲2AP 18
    Beat Stanford 28-10 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21BYU5-1▼11AP 19
    Lost 26-17 at home to Boise State as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 10
22. 22SMU6-0▲2AP 23
    Won 31-24 at Navy as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
23. 23NC State4-1–AP 22
    Off this week · Was No. 23
24. 24San Diego State5-0▲1AP 24
    Beat New Mexico 31-7 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
25. 25Auburn4-2▼7AP NR
    Lost 34-10 at home to No. 2 Georgia as a 14.5-point underdog · Was No. 18

Dropping out

• Texas (was No. 21): Lost to No. 6 Oklahoma 55-48 at a neutral site as a 4-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.