Projected AP Top 25 after week 5

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.4 places on average, with 7 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama5-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 12 Ole Miss 42-21 at home as a 15-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Georgia5-0–AP 2
   Beat No. 8 Arkansas 37-0 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Penn State5-0▲1AP 4
   Beat Indiana 24-0 at home as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Iowa5-0▲1AP 3
   Won 51-14 at Maryland as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Cincinnati4-0▲2AP 5
   Won 24-13 at No. 9 Notre Dame as a 2-point favorite · Was No. 7
6. 6Oklahoma5-0–AP 6
   Won 37-31 at Kansas State as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Ohio State4-1▲4AP 7
   Won 52-13 at Rutgers as a 15-point favorite · Was No. 11
8. 8BYU5-0▲5AP 10
   Won 34-20 at Utah State as a 8-point favorite · Was No. 13
9. 9Michigan5-0▲5AP 9
   Won 38-17 at Wisconsin as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 14
10. 10Oregon4-1▼7AP 8
    Lost 31-24 at Stanford as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
11. 11Coastal Carolina5-0▲5AP 15
    Beat UL Monroe 59-6 at home as a 33.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
12. 12Arkansas4-1▼4AP 13
    Lost 37-0 at No. 2 Georgia as a 16.5-point underdog · Was No. 8
13. 13Notre Dame4-1▼4AP 14
    Lost 24-13 at home to No. 7 Cincinnati as a 2-point underdog · Was No. 9
14. 14Michigan State5-0▲3AP 11
    Beat Western Kentucky 48-31 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
15. 15Oklahoma State5-0▲4AP 12
    Beat No. 21 Baylor 24-14 at home as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 19
16. 16Ole Miss3-1▼4AP 17
    Lost 42-21 at No. 1 Alabama as a 15-point underdog · Was No. 12
17. 17Florida3-2▼7AP 20
    Lost 20-13 at Kentucky as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
18. 18Auburn4-1▲4AP 18
    Won 24-19 at LSU as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 22
19. 19Kentucky5-0NewAP 16
    Beat No. 10 Florida 20-13 at home as a 7.5-point underdog · Was unranked
20. 20NC State4-1▲3AP 23
    Beat Louisiana Tech 34-27 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
21. 21Wake Forest5-0▲3AP 19
    Beat Louisville 37-34 at home as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 24
22. 22Clemson3-2▲3AP NR
    Beat Boston College 19-13 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
23. 23Texas A&M3-2▼8AP NR
    Lost 26-22 at home to Mississippi State as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 15
24. 24Pittsburgh4-1NewAP NR
    Won 52-21 at Georgia Tech as a 3-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25SMU5-0NewAP 24
    Beat South Florida 41-17 at home as a 21-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Fresno State (was No. 18): Lost 27-24 at Hawai'i as a 10.5-point favorite.
• UCLA (was No. 20): Lost 42-23 at home to Arizona State as a 3-point favorite.
• Baylor (was No. 21): Lost 24-14 at No. 19 Oklahoma State as a 4-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.