Projected AP Top 25 after week 7

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.2 places on average, with 8 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia7-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 11 Kentucky 30-13 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Cincinnati6-0▲1AP 2
   Beat UCF 56-21 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
3. 3Oklahoma7-0▲1AP 3
   Beat TCU 52-31 at home as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Alabama6-1▲1AP 4
   Won 49-9 at Mississippi State as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Ohio State5-1▲1AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 6
6. 6Penn State5-1▲1AP 7
   Off this week · Was No. 7
7. 7Michigan6-0▲1AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 8
8. 8Oregon5-1▲1AP 10
   Beat California 24-17 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Michigan State7-0▲1AP 9
   Won 20-15 at Indiana as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10Oklahoma State6-0▲2AP 8
    Won 32-24 at No. 25 Texas as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 12
11. 11Ole Miss5-1▲2AP 12
    Won 31-26 at Tennessee as a 1-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12Notre Dame5-1▲2AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 14
13. 13Iowa6-1▼11AP 11
    Lost 24-7 at home to Purdue as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
14. 14Coastal Carolina6-0▲1AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 15
15. 15Wake Forest6-0▲1AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 16
16. 16Kentucky6-1▼5AP 15
    Lost 30-13 at No. 1 Georgia as a 21.5-point underdog · Was No. 11
17. 17Texas A&M5-2▲4AP 17
    Won 35-14 at Missouri as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
18. 18Purdue4-2NewAP 25
    Won 24-7 at No. 2 Iowa as a 11.5-point underdog · Was unranked
19. 19NC State5-1▲3AP 18
    Won 33-7 at Boston College as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 22
20. 20UTSA7-0NewAP 24
    Beat Rice 45-0 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was unranked
21. 21Baylor6-1NewAP 20
    Beat No. 19 BYU 38-24 at home as a 5.5-point favorite · Was unranked
22. 22SMU6-0▲1AP 21
    Off this week · Was No. 23
23. 23San Diego State6-0▲1AP 22
    Won 19-13 at San José State as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
24. 24Utah4-2NewAP NR
    Beat No. 18 Arizona State 35-21 at home as a 1.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Pittsburgh5-1NewAP 23
    Won 28-7 at Virginia Tech as a 6.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Arkansas (was No. 17): Lost 38-23 at home to Auburn as a 4.5-point favorite.
• Arizona State (was No. 18): Lost 35-21 at Utah as a 1.5-point underdog.
• BYU (was No. 19): Lost 38-24 at Baylor as a 5.5-point underdog.
• Florida (was No. 20): Lost 49-42 at LSU as a 12.5-point favorite.
• Texas (was No. 25): Lost 32-24 at home to No. 12 Oklahoma State as a 3.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.