Projected AP Top 25 after week 12

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.1 places on average, with 11 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia11-0–AP 1
   Beat Charleston Southern 56-7 at home as a 52.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama10-1–AP 3
   Beat No. 21 Arkansas 42-35 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Cincinnati11-0–AP 4
   Beat SMU 48-14 at home as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Ohio State10-1▲1AP 2
   Beat No. 7 Michigan State 56-7 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Notre Dame10-1▲1AP 5
   Beat Georgia Tech 55-0 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Michigan10-1▲2AP 6
   Won 59-18 at Maryland as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
7. 7Oklahoma State10-1▲2AP 7
   Won 23-0 at Texas Tech as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 9
8. 8Ole Miss9-2▲2AP 8
   Beat Vanderbilt 31-17 at home as a 36-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9Baylor9-2▲2AP 9
   Won 20-10 at Kansas State as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 11
10. 10Oklahoma10-1▲2AP 10
    Beat Iowa State 28-21 at home as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11BYU9-2▲3AP 13
    Won 34-17 at Georgia Southern as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 14
12. 12UTSA11-0▲3AP 15
    Beat UAB 34-31 at home as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 15
13. 13Michigan State9-2▼6AP 12
    Lost 56-7 at No. 5 Ohio State as a 19.5-point underdog · Was No. 7
14. 14Texas A&M8-3▲2AP 14
    Beat Prairie View A&M 52-3 at home as a 41.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Houston10-1▲2AP 19
    Beat Memphis 31-13 at home as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16Utah8-3▲8AP 16
    Beat No. 4 Oregon 38-7 at home as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 24
17. 17Oregon9-2▼13AP 11
    Lost 38-7 at No. 24 Utah as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 4
18. 18Iowa9-2–AP 17
    Beat Illinois 33-23 at home as a 12-point favorite · Was No. 18
19. 19Wisconsin8-3–AP 18
    Beat Nebraska 35-28 at home as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 19
20. 20Pittsburgh9-2–AP 20
    Beat Virginia 48-38 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
21. 21Louisiana10-1▲1AP 23
    Won 42-14 at Liberty as a 4.5-point underdog · Was No. 22
22. 22San Diego State10-1▲1AP 22
    Won 28-20 at UNLV as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 23
23. 23NC State8-3▲2AP 24
    Beat Syracuse 41-17 at home as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
24. 24Arkansas7-4▼3AP 25
    Lost 42-35 at No. 2 Alabama as a 20.5-point underdog · Was No. 21
25. 25Clemson8-3NewAP NR
    Beat No. 13 Wake Forest 48-27 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Wake Forest (was No. 13): Lost 48-27 at Clemson as a 3.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.