Projected AP Top 25 after week 3

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.7 places on average, with 5 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama3-0–AP 1
   Won 31-29 at No. 11 Florida as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Georgia3-0–AP 2
   Beat South Carolina 40-13 at home as a 31.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Oklahoma3-0–AP 4
   Beat Nebraska 23-16 at home as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Oregon3-0–AP 3
   Beat Stony Brook 48-7 at home as a 42-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Iowa3-0–AP 5
   Beat Kent State 30-7 at home as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Clemson2-1–AP 9
   Beat Georgia Tech 14-8 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Texas A&M3-0–AP 7
   Beat New Mexico 34-0 at home as a 30-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Cincinnati3-0–AP 8
   Won 38-24 at Indiana as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Ohio State2-1–AP 10
   Beat Tulsa 41-20 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Penn State3-0–AP 6
    Beat No. 22 Auburn 28-20 at home as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 10
11. 11Notre Dame3-0▲1AP 12
    Beat Purdue 27-13 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Iowa State2-1▲2AP 14
    Won 48-3 at UNLV as a 32-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Florida2-1▼2AP 11
    Lost 31-29 at home to No. 1 Alabama as a 14-point underdog · Was No. 11
14. 14Coastal Carolina3-0▲2AP 17
    Won 28-25 at Buffalo as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Ole Miss3-0▲2AP 13
    Beat Tulane 61-21 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16Wisconsin1-1▲2AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 18
17. 17Arkansas3-0▲3AP 16
    Beat Georgia Southern 45-10 at home as a 23-point favorite · Was No. 20
18. 18North Carolina2-1▲3AP 21
    Beat Virginia 59-39 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
19. 19BYU3-0▲4AP 15
    Beat No. 19 Arizona State 27-17 at home as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 23
20. 20Michigan3-0▲5AP 19
    Beat Northern Illinois 63-10 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
21. 21UCLA2-1▼8AP 24
    Lost 40-37 at home to Fresno State as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 13
22. 22Virginia Tech2-1▼7AP NR
    Lost 27-21 at West Virginia as a 2-point underdog · Was No. 15
23. 23Michigan State3-0NewAP 20
    Won 38-17 at No. 24 Miami as a 7-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Baylor3-0NewAP NR
    Won 45-7 at Kansas as a 17-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Wake Forest3-0NewAP NR
    Beat Florida State 35-14 at home as a 4.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Arizona State (was No. 19): Lost 27-17 at No. 23 BYU as a 3-point favorite.
• Auburn (was No. 22): Lost 28-20 at No. 10 Penn State as a 4-point underdog.
• Miami (was No. 24): Lost 38-17 at home to Michigan State as a 7-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.